A different answer

J,


What your data shows is that there is a non-zero probability that you will have a peak to trough decline of more than 300 BB. Your result is correct. In fact there is a non-zero probability that you will have a peak to drough decline of more than 1000 BB, 10,000 BB, etc.


The longer you play, the longer your max peak to trough decline will be. For example, if you reran your simulation for 400,000 hours you would, on average, see a max decline of more than the 450 BB that you saw in the 40,000 hr simulation.


If you are looking for 100% safety, then you need an infinite bankroll. If you play long enough you are guaranteed to have drawdowns greater than 300 BB, 500 BB, 1,000 BB, etc.


There are several things that you can do when you are going through a large drawdown to determine whether you are playing poorly or being unlucky. One is to calculate whether your hole cards are uncommonly bad. If they are, then there is a greater chance that you are just being unlucky. If they are not, then there is a greater chance that you are playing poorly.