Anybody fold here?

[donny5k]

Let's say the payouts are 20/30/50. I'd say you have about $34 expectation calling (let's say 2-1 to win, about $42 expectation when you win, $20 when you lose) and if you fold the short stack will bust the vast majority of the time. So it's probably safe to say your expectation is more than $34 since you are almost guaranteed $30 and you'll have only a 3 or 4 to 1 chip disadvantage going into heads up. And sometimes you'll bust the short stack if he doesnt play on the button. So no, I probably fold here.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
while it is true that you are holding a pretty decent hand here (and you are likely ahead), you are so infrequently way ahead with this holding, that folding here is correct due to the payout structure, and the short stack being all in on the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't play for 2nd, sorry. That's what donks do.

Easy, easy push.

And yes it is "ooh ooh I have an ace." It's 3 handed, AT, and you fold? what!?

[ewing55]

I'd probably push here also EXCEPT SB has said "Hey, I really like my hand, wanna chance going out in 3rd?"

I would stop and think about my read on SB. If here was playing pretty well, I'd be more likely to think this was just a steal, otherwise he really likes his hand and I'm folding into 2nd.

ATo is a pretty good hand against a random hand, 59% against a top 50% hand and only about 50/50 against a top 25% hand.

I'd have to have a pretty good read to push this.

-------------Jeff

[11t]

I stated his range was any 2 cards

[microbet]

5900 to 6985 is not a huge disadvantage.

Still, you have to be tight here. ATo isn't good enough. But, I think folding QQ would be bad. Big stack is probably pretty loose here and I think a call is good with JJ+ and maybe AK.

edit: You can never be sure his range is any two. A lot of very aggressive people here will still let really bad hands go. But, if you assume he goes with any two, you can add some more PPs to about 77 or 88 and AQs. Still, not ATo.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
while it is true that you are holding a pretty decent hand here (and you are likely ahead), you are so infrequently way ahead with this holding, that folding here is correct due to the payout structure, and the short stack being all in on the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't play for 2nd, sorry. That's what donks do.

Easy, easy push.

And yes it is "ooh ooh I have an ace." It's 3 handed, AT, and you fold? what!?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, what if the shortstack had 15 chips instead of 615?
What if he had 115 chips? 215 chips? While of course 'playing for first' is what you are usually doing, you can't just blindly gamble 3-handed without considering relative stack sizes.

[Karak567]

I still really can't believe you guys are advocating folding ATo here. What happened to gamble for first, settle for third?

I think folding ATo here is really bad, and I'll leave it at that.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I still really can't believe you guys are advocating folding ATo here. What happened to gamble for first, settle for third?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Gamble for the most +$EV"

I'd eyeball it, think 'yep, fold' and then fold.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play for 2nd, sorry. That's what donks do.

Easy, easy push.

And yes it is "ooh ooh I have an ace." It's 3 handed, AT, and you fold? what!?

[/ QUOTE ]

ok pal, i was originally going to explain to you why this is such an easy fold, but i realized that you called me a donk. so instead, im going to leave it at this: folding is clearly the correct play here, the reasoning behind why it is correct is something that only an expert tournament player understands.

[microbet]

I totally agree with you about the OP.

But, you said you only call with AA and KK.

Mostly to be a pain, I'm gonna have to call you out on QQ.

I think JJ is debatable, but a good call and possibly a couple more hands, depending on how aggressive villian is.

I request you cave on QQ.