Whats your Finish Distribution at the 109's and 215's

[FatalError]

Ok, i'm posting this because i'm beginning to get a little depressed with my 109 finish distribution... I have a 19% ROI over more than 2000 SnG's but it concerns me that as my numbers become signifigant statistically my number of 1st place finishes is really beginning to trail off, my 1st places are way below my 2nds and 3rd, but i really don't think i'm doing anything wrong ITM... i'm hoping it's just some variance over my last 1000 which were preety shitty

As you can see i'm really slipping in 1st place, now i realize at the 109s i should be happy with a preety even 13/13/13 distribution but thats where i used to be and i'm now seeing these 1sts slipping. Does anyone here have any impressions as to why this may be happening (to aggressive 3 handed maybe?)
1 - 12.09
2 - 13.44
3 - 13.33
4 - 12.43
5 - 12.09
6 - 12.21
7 - 10.75
8 - 6.83
9 - 4.14
10 - 2.69

[citanul]

well, a few things:

a) your 1st is not "way below" your 2nd and 3rds, it's 1.x% lower.
b) i/we have no idea what your sample size is.
c) it looks like you're making money. i'm too lazy too check what roi your numbers spit out, but i'm assuming it's nicely positive.
d) given (b) it could just be variance.
e) you appear to not bust out 10th and 9th enough. i don't mean this as a joke at all. there's lots of idiots running around on these tables, and if you're not getting all in with them and getting sucked out on a nice little chunk of the time, you're not getting your money in (good) enough.
f) i/we don't know if this is all your sngs or your last x sngs or whatever, and if so, if you have a block of sngs before this. if this is just your most recent large chunk of sngs, and your results are markedly different than they were before, you should look at your game some. your flattish 6th-1st distribution is pretty concerning. i'd assume that this means that you should check out (e) and that you're also loosening up a little too early a bit of the time.
g) the general concensus for "i'm not getting 1st enough" is that you're not getting to the money or heads up with enough of the chips to start with. at least that's the answer most of the time. from the looks of it, this looks to be sort of your problem. an even distribution would be endemic of getting to 6thish with an average stack every game and then playing averagely. again, that should be +ev, but you could be making more.
h) i'm going to say that my first piece of advice would be to take more chances 3 handed. your itm is nice (hell, your roi is nice too).

there's two parts to getting to 1st: getting to hu, and then having more chips than the other guy. say you make the money 40% of the time and you have an average stack (as do the other 2) each time. then the first thing you do 3 handed is run it out with someone 50/50 every game. so you have 20% total finishes 3rds. but then you've got a 2/1 chip lead heads up, so you should win about 2/3 of the remaining 20% of games, which is about 13.5%. clearly this strategy isn't optimal, but if you make some changes to it, it gets closer and closer to optimal. for instance, sometimes, your opponents go to war before you get a chance to run with them. and in practice, you should be able to get your money in as a favorite against the standard competition at most levels in the money. so the 50/50 figure drifts ever closer to 60/40 or so. etc. etc. etc.

hope any of that was helpful.

citanul

[FatalError]

if you read the post i said it was for oer a little more than 2000 SnG's and i have a 17% ROI so i'm winning

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
if you read the post i said it was for oer a little more than 2000 SnG's and i have a 17% ROI so i'm winning

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you just...take a shot at citanul? Please tell me your post came off harsher than intended. That was an incredibly thoughtful, well written post. It's good to have you back citanul. This forum's been going to the dogs lately [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[freemoney]

kyro, you suck, you say nothing good and arent a good player, please dont talk about people much better than yourself which includes me and fatalerror.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
kyro, you suck, you say nothing good and arent a good player, please dont talk about people much better than yourself which includes me and fatalerror.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you just...take a shot at citanul? Please tell me your post came off harsher than intended. That was an incredibly thoughtful, well written post. It's good to have you back citanul. This forum's been going to the dogs lately [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't disagree more. I wish citanul would've stayed under whichever rock he slinked off to during his absence. As for the quality of the writing in his post, I can only say that if I were associated with his college I would be rather embarrassed.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
if you read the post i said it was for oer a little more than 2000 SnG's and i have a 17% ROI so i'm winning

[/ QUOTE ]

my actual content for this thread begins and ends with my first post up there.

i just wanted to address the above quoted text. keep in mind FError, i honestly have no problem with you.

a) I clearly read the post, and offered a huge amount of pretty valuable advice/analysis, so being a dick, if that's what you were trying to do, doesn't seem to be a great response.

b) you did not, in fact, say that the data provided was for a little over 2000 sngs, i don't think. i think that you said that you had played total a little ovver 2000 sngs. that could be in the wording or some ambiguity i read in to the post though.

c) you said that you have a 19% ROI in the original post, not a 17% ROI.

d) i'm happy that you're winning, and you should be too. if you feel like your game is slipping though, you should look at it, perhaps considering those things that i responded to in my first post.

e) if you've played 2000 total games, and in the last 1000 you feel like you are running pretty bad, as you implied in your original post, there's something screwy going on.

again, i'm happy to see that there are some people who are glad to see me back around a bit.

kyro and freemoney, i kinda like both of you guys, but you should keep the random flamewarrish stuff to the 900 daily threads on personal challenges, i'm going to vegas, should i move ups, raptor is an idiot, and yugo is gay.

or something. off to the airport for me.

citanul

[freemoney]

im not quick to compliment but great post basically everything i wanted to say, the whole thing about not finishing 9th or 10th that ive been saying for the last couple weeks has now been said by someone where it will be more likely to be respected.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
and if you're not getting all in with them and getting sucked out on a nice little chunk of the time, you're not getting your money in (good) enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol