Lots of outs VS an all in

[NotMitch]

Slight nitpicks with the math. All the Ax hands can hit a kicker to make a boat, and if the kicker is a club it is one less flush out, and could hit a higher flush with running clubs. Still I don't think that changes the math very much and it does look very close. For me it depends on what I think of the rest of the table. If I think I am one of the better players left and I have the stack to play with I fold and look for a better spot. If I need the chips to have a viable stack or I'm playing with better players it swings towards a call.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

All the Ax hands can hit a kicker to make a boat

But if his kicker is a four or a five you won't make your flush, so you'll lose anyway. That doesn't decrease the number of outs you have against A4 or A5. (the math is raw, I'm not factoring in redraws)

For me it depends on what I think of the rest of the table.

Of course. My point here is that calling here is slightly better EV than taking AK against a pair.

[NotMitch]

Got it. I'm a little slow today, my mind is on the weekend already. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[josie_wales]

EXCELLENT responses and thank you for them.

Normally, I lay this down, but I had him on a weak ace.

WRONG!!!

Oh well,

Great thoughts and comments guys,

JW

[PrayingMantis]

I think this is a very very close call. If you get 2.15:1 on the pot, it's +EV call for every situation where your EV is more than 0.31. According to twodimes.com, if he has any Ace, with a club kicker, your EV is 0.317. That IS close. If his kicker is not a club, than your EV is slightly better, around 0.338. If he's got A3, you're not good, and the same, of course, for A2. Best situation is if he's holding a PP, without any club, than you are only 6:4 dog.

Overall, It seems to me like much too close a call. I think most times he has an A here. I muck.

PrayingMantis

[Bozeman]

Kurn,

Ignoring redraws here is a big mistake. Suppose he has Ax (x!=4), he has 10 outs to redraw on your 11, which will happen 5.56% of the time. You end up being only 30.31% to win against the 85 A or 22 hands (discounting AA, AK). You miscounted these, partially offsetting the redraw systematic error. Against the K3c, 26.82%, against the other 7 Kxc, 31.26% (remember, you have 4 and 5 as outs here). This means that you have 30.34% => 2.30:1 odds, and the pot is giving you only 2.15:1, so this is an absolute fold.

Only time you would do something else is a) you are a considerable dog to the field b) he would make this move with almost all pocket pairs.

Craig

[Schmed]

I fold because even if I catch I may be beat.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Thanks. Leave it to an Omaha player to be better at the math. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This sounds like I'd need at least 3-1 from the pot to make a call reasonable unless I was sure I could add pocket pairs to the mix.

[Prickly Pete]

I look at this analysis (very good analysis by the way, Kurn & Boze) and I have to chuckle when I think about Sam Grizzle making this type of play analysis. Like when he called that guy's JJ allin with 76s. I have a feeling, under his breath, he was muttering "Damn, forgot to carry the 1 again."

[ThaSaltCracka]

Does anyone think his opponent OVER played his hand?