Tough one with 99

[ThaSaltCracka]

okay how about 1000??? is that still silly?
I think putting all of your chips in there is silly, you are GAMBLING too much. 99 is a marginal hand with 4 players left to act, you are likely to get called by overcards, which makes you a 54% favorite. Not that good. I think an all in is more likely to be called than a medium-to large size bet. This is my thought as to why. A all in bet in a game that he has described seems like a steal, someone is waiting to catch him stealing, so overcards are are likely to call. A smaller bet would seem, IMHO, to be taken a bit more serious, because it would seem like you are trying to get a call. I read in Mike Caro's Book of tells that strong means weak, and weak means strong, now I know this is most definelty not always the case, but I think you see where I am going. Now the only problem with the smaller raise is you could be letting someone in cheap, but if people were paying attention maybe they would think you are trying to draw then in.
Just my thoughts

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

okay how about 1000??? is that still silly?

Yes. It makes it too likely you'll get called.

I think putting all of your chips in there is silly, you are GAMBLING too much.


Putting aside for a moment the fact that with less than 8x BB in his stack he's close to being in a position where he *must* gamble to win, if you think all-in is the wrong move, then fold.

I think an all in is more likely to be called than a medium-to large size bet.

Why would a player with 5000 chips be more likely to call off 60% of his chips than 20%?

[ohkanada]

I agree with Kurn across the board!

Ken Poklitar

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for all the replies so far.

Now, let's see if I can create some *real* argument here... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]



ohkanada (Ken Poklitar): "All-in and it doesn't appear to be close".

William: "I think I do better folding".


I know it's not rare that two good poker players have different opinions and styles, but I feel that this is exactly why I thought this 99 to be a tough one. You are two of the most appriciated posters here (Cris, don't flame [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) - so how come one of you thinks it's an all-in, and not even a close decision (!), and the other would fold?

Please elaborate, because I'm still thinking about this hand... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

All othres are welcome too, of course. (And no insults!)

PrayingMantis

[ohkanada]

1) With only 8xBB you need to find a hand soon.

2) You also state the blinds are jumping up soon. So you are about to be at 5xBB which is seriously short stacked.

3) 99 is better than average. You are happy to take the blinds/antes and should be willing to do the coin flip vs overcards. If someone calls with a bigger pair, so be it.

4) You are solidly in 5th place. 5th doesn't get anything. You can't just wait for JJ or QQ+.

If the 4 bigger stacks are gambling up against each other then I can see folding the hand.

Ken Poklitar

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Play is very tight, very aggressive, all-in or big raises and re-raises pre-flop, and many folds. Almost no flops. we play like that for a long time. I've made more than my own share of all-in's, few times now, with some pretty marginal hands, because I'm getting nada from the dealer. People are waiting to trap me.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is why I think his all in is more likely to be called by over cards.

I have seen many people make a medium raise trying to suck people in so they get paid off. I would be far more worried about someone making a medium raise than all in on a table that was very aggresive preflop.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I have one other thing to say about this hand. IMO this is the hand that makes or breaks his tourney, I would try to win as much as possible here, if you want to steal the blinds go ahead, I am not arguing neccesarily against that play (pushin all in). I am mearly trying to show another possible way to play this hand. I see the all in having two positives and one negative. One positive you win 750, not neccesarily chump change, number two you double up, in good posistion. The negative of course is you are knocked out.
Slow playing, if thats what this would be, has a some positives and negatives as well. A positive would be you could potentially see a flop for cheap, compared to an all in. Also you will get some action, so you could potentially win more then you would by stealing the blinds.
A negative would be if someone reraises you you may be inclined to fold, thus weaking your stack. However you could also go all in after a raise. A final negative is you are letting your opponents see the flop for cheap.

[PrayingMantis]

Cracka,

In a little more deperate situation I might have gone for the "stop-and-go": bet half my stack PF, and if someone calls - bet the other half on the flop - no matter what flop.

I understand the point you make about "scaring" them with a medium raise, rather than with an all-in. But in this particular game, they will probably raise me all-in, because they will sense weakness. Doing this raise with a big pair might be a good idea. I'm not sure about the 99 though.


PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

if you think you will be re-raised then try the all in, I still think you are going to get called though.