SnG results (late game)

[skaboomizzy]

A few more mitigating factors:

I really respect you guys, you're all excellent players and this isn't in any way meant to be a dig or insult at you.

But in the early stages (first three or four orbits) of tournaments like KotZ or these SnGs, the play is very, very predictable. Usually a preflop raise takes down the pot. If it's called and the raiser bets again on the flop, it ends there a lot of the time as well. If it's re-raised pre-flop, it usually goes to the re-raiser.

When Tim called my re-raise pre-flop, I knew he had SOMETHING. He's not just splashing around with a junk hand. As I said, somehow I came up with A-face suited for his hand.

The flop is frightening. After he check-raised, I had three likely outcomes.

1) He flopped his flush right there. I don't think he'd push in that early without hitting the nuts, we were both right around 1500 in chips to start the hand, and I don't believe anyone had yet busted out in either table. (about 60% likelihood)

2) He's got the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he might just be trying to push me out. Nothing made yet, but he's got 9 outs. (30%)

3) He's got pocket Ks and has flopped a set and is willing to put his tournament on the line with that. I don't yet know what he's put me on yet, but he doesn't have me on A-A or a made flush. (10%)

The 450 bet of mine on the flop was designed to give me an escape if he pushed it in. If he folded, the pot was mine. If he called and a blank came on the turn, I probably would've moved him in. If he called and a diamond came on the turn, I was gonna be out of the hand.

I admit I mis-read, but it wasn't by much. At best for me, in my mind he has 9 outs (in reality it was 11 with the two black kings). At worst for me, he's already made the nuts and I'm drawing virtually dead.

If it's later in the tournament, I call. If I have him outchipped to the point that I can survive losing the hand, I call. If there's only two diamonds on the flop, I call. But everything just kinda added up wrong for me on that hand, so I let it go and proceeded to play on with a stack of around 950 or so.

I'm not expecting everyone to say "Oh wow, he's right!" or anything. This is just a glimpse into my thought process on that one particular situation.

Edit to add: It was a great bet by Tim. Credit where it's due.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
But in the early stages (first three or four orbits) of tournaments like KotZ or these SnGs, the play is very, very predictable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't know about the US games, but the Euro ones get pretty crazy real early [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. Although I see what you mean.

[ QUOTE ]
1) He flopped his flush right there. I don't think he'd push in that early without hitting the nuts, we were both right around 1500 in chips to start the hand, and I don't believe anyone had yet busted out in either table. (about 60% likelihood)

2) He's got the A , he might just be trying to push me out. Nothing made yet, but he's got 9 outs. (30%)

3) He's got pocket Ks and has flopped a set and is willing to put his tournament on the line with that. I don't yet know what he's put me on yet, but he doesn't have me on A-A or a made flush. (10%)


[/ QUOTE ]

About these three possible outcoumes, I think I would be giving them completely different probablity values.The probablity that he has flopped the flush is very very low, considering the fact you read him as having a real hand PF (that leaves you with AQd, maybe AJd, what else? Each of these has only *one* way of "having" [due to the suitedness]). If it was just any two diamonds, the probability would have been higher.

The more important thing, is that check-raising all-in with the nut-flush, is exactly *not* predictable. It is a very tricky move, that could be done by a plyaer who played very LAG until that point, maybe, and is trying to make it look like another steal.

KK: He has only 3 ways of holding the KK. Low probablity, and again, I'm not sure that's the move I would see with KKK on this flop.

Most probable is that he's holding the Ad and I'm really trying not to read it backwards. I believe AdKx is pretty probable. Of course, I can't tell you I would be putting Tim on that one at the heat of action. It's just what I'm thinking now. In this scenario, it's a clear call, for me at least.

Well, you made your decision, and I respect it. Yet, to summerize it, the fact that, as you say, it's a very predictable tight PF game, is, IMO, not a good excuse for a fold here, but on the contrary: this kind of play should narrow very much the range of hands your opponent (any opponent) is holding, and therefore - diminish significantly the possibility he's beating you here.

Again, I would be very happy to read some more opinions.

[skaboomizzy]

[ QUOTE ]
About these three possible outcoumes, I think I would be giving them completely different probablity values.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the wonderful thing about poker... so many different ways to read a hand, and so many different outcomes. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I guess I should be complimented that you think the check-raise with the nuts is a "tricky play", because it's one of the first options that would cross my mind if I hit the nuts on the flop. We all tend to project our own thoughts and biases onto the actions of others, and I think that's what I did here. Will I do it next time? Well, that'll depend on the situation.

Anyway, I love reading other thoughts and responses on this situation... this is turning into quite a fun discussion.