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?? probability of future results ??
Take a hypothetical situation....
Player Able has an established win rate, WR. Able's WR is expressed as BB/HR or BB/100, whichever is relevant. Able's standard deviation (SD) is also expressed in terms of BB, rather than $$. Given that, I'd like to be able to predict the probability of a ceratin result (or greater) over a specific span of play. In other words, I'd like a generic function to calculate the probability of winning (or losing) X BB's over a specific span Y (HR's or 100's) play, given win (loss) rate parameters WR and SD. Help! Thanks in advance, mosquito. |
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