formula for calling bets based on outs

[imported_bingobazza]

Hi guys,

Im a bit of a donk when it comes to maths problems, but Ive been trying to write a formula for the following, assuming we are on the flop

I have 'a' chance of hitting my outs on the turn (written as 0.2 rather than 20%, for example)
The pot size is 'P'
'n' is the number of callers i think Im going to get.

Im trying to solve the equation for the max bet I can make to give me the correct odds for my chance of hitting my outs, but Im a tiny bit out with this, and I cant correct for it.

Im sure this is a clumsy, and rudimentary post for many of you to read, but any help is appreciated.

Bingo

[LesWormMurphy]

You shouldn't just count on your outs to decide between folding or calling. If the pot is 15BB on the flop and it costs you one bet to see the turn, even if you only have 2 outs, you better be in there.

But you must also be careful when you count your outs because sometimes an out won't give you the best hand.

For example, if you have Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-- you have 6 outs to pair either your Queen or Ace to give you top pair. In addition you have a backdoor flush draw and even a gutshot-backdoor straight draw. All together you have 9 outs, but you should probably lower the value because top pair won't win often, and because the flop is slightly coordinated. So give yourself 6-8 outs, depending, and act accordingly.

Hope it helped.

[imported_bingobazza]

Helpful....

If you could also show my error here for calculating the max bet (X).....

X = 1 + (2*%chance of hitting out)*pot size*% chance of hitting out

Then that would be really helpful as well.

Cheers

Bingo

[shday]

[ QUOTE ]
If you could also show my error here for calculating the max bet (X).....

X = 1 + (2*%chance of hitting out)*pot size*% chance of hitting outs

[/ QUOTE ]

...I couldn't figure out how you came up with that.

Here is what I get (where the pot size includes the max bet):

max bet = (pot size)(chance of hitting outs)

or, if you do not include the max bet in the pot size (what you seem to want):

max bet = (pot size)(chance of hitting outs)/(1 - chance of hitting outs)

[imported_bingobazza]

[ QUOTE ]


or, if you do not include the max bet in the pot size (what you seem to want):

max bet = (pot size)(chance of hitting outs)/(1 - chance of hitting outs)

[/ QUOTE ]

This error seems to be along the same lines of the error Im making. For example, if there is $35 in the pot, and the chance of hitting the out is, lets say, 13%, then

Max bet = 35*.13/1-.13
4.55/.87
Max bet is 5.2298.

Assuming there is a caller, then the pot size after the caller is 5.2298*2 + 35 = 45.45

But 13% of 45.45 is 5.9085, not 5.2298. My original formula gets you closer, but is still wrong.

Im trying to make a bet that results in the bet being the identical % of the resultant pot (with n callers) to the % chance of me hitting my outs on the next card.

Bingo

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

Im trying to make a bet that results in the bet being the identical % of the resultant pot (with n callers) to the % chance of me hitting my outs on the next card.


[/ QUOTE ]

so you want:

chance of hitting = bet / pot + bet

which is

bet = chance * pot / (1-chance)

so if you have a .25 chance of hitting in a 10 bet pot

bet = .25 * 10 / .75

bet = 3.333


there's 10 in the pot, you bet 3.3333 your opponent calls the pot is now 13.33333. 3.3333 = 13.33333*.25

[shday]

ok, if you want to factor in the number of callers:

bet = chance*pot/(1 - chance(1 + callers))

obviously, if there are no callers this reduces to the previous equation.

[spaminator101]

are you going to leave implied odds out of the question id say that on the flop implied odds are more important than pot odds

[imported_bingobazza]

No implied odds, just actual pot odds would be great for now.

[imported_bingobazza]

Cant anyone do this....maybe Im not as stupid as I thought?

Bingo