What's your play?

[Vince Lepore]

Single Table NLH. Pay 3 places.

5 players left.

Blinds 150 - 300

UTG: T3000 folds

EP: T2600 folds

Button: T1095 moves in.

SB: T1400 without hesitation moves in.

BB: T1050 (after posting bb) A,Qo.

What's the BB's play and why?

Vince

[Stoneii]

I Fold - SB looks to have a v.good hand - if he's got rubbish he lays down as he doesn't know what you'll do behind him. CO can have anything but SB is about to get the button and would wait for a better opportunity.

But again, sometimes I call, depending on nature of animals that are raising in front of me!!

stoneii

[La Brujita]

Edit to say I stupidly missed the button moving in.

This is a very tough decision. When there are two big stacks and three short stacks the one danger you have as a short stack is if the other two short stacks tangle you quickly find yourself as the shortest stack by far. That is why it is always best for one of the big stacks to take out the little stack from your perspective. It is an obvious point but one you have to consider when deciding to call.

I don't necessarily put the button on any sort of hand. He only has two revolutions left and if there is any time for him to steal it will be now.

With the blinds this big, the button might well raise with any ace or any pocket pair and often steal with a king.

SB calling is worrisome, but he may have the same thinking as you. If my math is correct you need 27.6% to make this a plus ev call. You may well be getting that. I have not run the numbers but you likely are only getting incorrect odds against AA, KK, QQ and AK. Since you have an ace and a queen it reduces the likelihood of three of the four.

On the other hand, if it gets down to four handed you still have a shot but have less than half the chips of all other players.

I call unless I think there is a shot the big stacks attack each other. I probably feel the need to take a shower after I get knocked out.

It looks like this is Party Poker and just one further comment is that this relates a bit to Cris' thread about bubble bursting and my response thereto. With blinds this big there is a pretty decent sized luck element at the end of the game. I often feel as though the best one can do is consistently position oneself in positions like this (in contention with 4-5 left) and then just play solid poker and ride out the luck swings.

What do you think is the correct play Vince?

[Vince Lepore]

For all of the reason that you gave I think the correct play is to call. The most compelling reason for calling given the situation, I believe, is stack size vs equity. If that makes sense. What I am trying to point out is that by folding you find your self a big under dog just to make the money. If you call and win you effectively knock out two players, making it into the money with excellant chip position.

I folded. The button had K,Qd and the SB had A,Th. The sb won but that's not the issue. The issue is what does my fold say about how i looked at the situation. Why didn't I make the call when I knew it was correct. I am trying to iron out flaws in my thinking and discussions like this might help. Thanks.

Vince

[Bozeman]

I agree with you. Unless SB is playing watertight, you are usually better than 33% against their range of hands. And you become a significant dog to money if you fold.

Just for grins and giggles I looked at the simpler situation of B,SB,BB all having 1400 before posting, UTG with 3000, UTG+1 with 2800. Now you have 4th locked up (barring a tie) if you fold, worthless though that is, and 3rd if you call and win. For equal players and small stakes, you would then be worth .124xPrizePool if you fold and .362 if you call and win. So in best case scenario (that you avoid SB next hand), you will need to win 1/3 to profit from calling. This makes the decision fairly close for some ranges of B and SB hands, but these other factors push it clearly toward call.

Final data point: AQo vs ATs and 77 is about a 32% winner, and this is about the worst case excepting those with at least one dominating (AA,KK,QQ,AK) hand, or the unfortunate pair and AQ combination.

Craig

[Vince Lepore]

The problem here was a psychological one. I knew the right play but something other than my good judgement guided my action. I believe that I folded because previously I had been playing super aggressive when I got to four players. I would move in quite a bit and get called by inferior hands and more often than not lose. I became gun shy and my action here was one effect. I still believe that I get a bit over aggressive when I get to 4 and when I get heads up. I think I've adjusted my play correctly. I posted this because i belive it is an interesting situation for discussion. Thanks for the reply.

Vince

[Stagemusic]

Vince,

Thanks for the interesting hand. In the situation you described I think it's almost an automatic call. You are not going to see many better hands come down and the bet by the Button just screams steal. The SB probably does (and did) have a decent hand but you stand to triple up by making the call. If I get beat I know I went in giving myself the best chance I possibly could to win the thing.

Psychologically speaking. It is always easy for us to assume that we are beaten when faced with 2 all in players. Our mind tries to figure the odds that our AQo would be the best hand going in. I think this might be a situation where we listen to what we've read in poker books and try to think of reasons NOT to put it on the line. And I think we might be wrong. Not many of us are experienced enough to put that kind of thinking into an equation as the time clock is ticking away. But the situation you described isn't that difficult as you are ahead of most hands and only a slight dog to a few.

[La Brujita]

It is funny that you mention the psychological aspect because I was sitting up last night thinking of that very thing. I have a theory (it might be crazy) but here it is:

solid analytical players like those who post here at two plus two (me included) sometimes have trouble putting there money in when they know they have less than a fifty percent chance to win.

There area couple of reasons imo. One is that you start to think, well maybe I can look for a better place to push in, but as the blinds get big you can't get that selective.

Another reason is often two people will have correct odds to be in a pot, but one will have much better than the requisite odds to be in a pot. This is the situation we strive for, but sometimes we don't have the opportunity to reach this "cushion".

The third reason is good players like to be the aggressor and raising all in rather than calling. We get out of our comfort zone when calling, but sometimes it has to be done.

I have noticed pretty decent players who give a bit lip commenting on how bad my plays are occasionaly when I call with hands like K-7 offsuit or Q-3 suited (nobody at two plus two) when the odds justify the call. It is not a call I like to make but making these uncomfortable calls is another kind of discipline I think.

Regards

[Vince Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
solid analytical players like.... sometimes have trouble putting there money in when they know they have less than a fifty percent chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think because of the "you're broke - you're gone" concern. Understanding this concept in some instances causes one to take pause and reconsider his actions and more often than not one err's on the side of caution. Of course saying this is an error is probably an error in itself. It's a must concept to understand to be successful at tournament play. But it does sometimes create a hard place and a rock for us to ponder. I'd go as far as to say that those that can master this concept along with EV considerations may have a big advantage in tournament play.

[ QUOTE ]
good players like to be the aggressor and raising all in rather than calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and in a lot of instances the all in part may be a mistake. I think that good players should like to be the first one in and should come in with a raise whenever blinds to stack size are significant but there are situations that I think we move all in when we should make a pot size bet and see what comes. I know the concept get all the money in before the flop with the best hand. That's fine and correct in live action. But I wonder if it is correct in tournaments where "you're broke you're gone comes into play. I think the primary consideration in situations where you have a choice of moving in or making a mid to high raise and allowing your opponent to call is your skill vs your opponents. I believe it is to the better players advantage to see the flop before committing all of his chips. In a tournament anyway.

I might have roamed a bit from your point and if so I'm sorry just wanted to get that out.

Vince

[Al_Capone_Junior]

With AK I call, but with AQ I fold. Although the blinds are high, with five left people (generally) aren't going to be getting desperate quite yet. I think there's a reasonably good chance you'll go the way of the rail if you call here, even if you are ahead preflop.

al