One more AKo on the bubble

rickw · #1 03-28-2005, 03:05 AM

$10+1 Party NL Holdem tournament.

Blinds are 150/300; 4 players left

I'm on button w/ about 2500.
Bigstack is utg w/ approx. 3800; he's been a superlucky calling station, calling allins w/ axo;kxo, etc. and getting lucky when dominated.

SB has about 60 chips left after posting 150. Weak Tight

BB has about 1200 chips left after posting 300. Tight.

Bigstack raises to 600; I'm looking at ako;

Do I fold (on the theory of don't mix it up w/ bigstack on the bubble and why not wait for sb to get knocked out)?

Do I reraise? If so allin? There may be a little fold equity, although this guy was such a calling station that I couldn't count on that too much. In all likelihood I had a better hand, based on past experience with the guy.

BradleyT · #2 03-28-2005, 04:02 AM

Well you know the SB is coming in because he only has 60 more chips. Even if SB wins, he's going to have to win at least 1 more hand to even pay the blinds again.

I'd probably wait here.

Newt_Buggs · #3 03-28-2005, 04:16 AM

why not call and see a flop? If you have him dominated, you are roughly a 75% favorite to beat him if you go all in. If you hit the flop with the shared card, you are around 87% to win, giving you 5,000 chips and a really good shot at winning the tournament. I think that at a $10 SnG against a loose player this hand is just too good to fold. If you hit the flop you will probably be a big favorite, and if you fold preflop you probably wont have time to wait for another good hand to take him out with

rickw · #4 03-28-2005, 04:24 AM

Interesting. I didn't really consider calling. I was in "push or fold" mode.

But I guess in the back of my mind I figured if I just called, he could really have "any 2" and he would probably bet any flop, so if I didn't hit my hand, I wouldn't know where I stood . . . I guess if there were rags on the flop and he bet I could reraise to test the waters but I don't know . . .