Max ( E(winrate | lost 750 or 1500 bbs in 3 days))

[DcifrThs]

what is the MAXIMUM possible winrate attributable to a poker player given he/she (hereafter he) loses 750bbs in 3 days of playing.

how about 1500 bbs?

my gut is taht the best he can be is a -2bb/100, but id like t osee a formal extrapolation.

lets assume 8hrs a day at 150hands/hr. so 1200*3=4800 hands.

whats the best win rate this player can have?
-Barron

[whitelime]

You are missing two key pieces of information. One is the variance of the game he is playing. The other is the confidence interval over which you want this calculation. Without these numbers, the maximum true winrate can approach infinity.

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
You are missing two key pieces of information. One is the variance of the game he is playing. The other is the confidence interval over which you want this calculation. Without these numbers, the maximum true winrate can approach infinity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly, the most a player can net in a hand in an online limit game that doesn't allow unlimited heads up raising is 108 BB/hand (assuming a full ring 10-handed game). So, the maximum BB/100 that any player under these conditions can have is 10800 BB/100.

[zerosum]

Are we to assume that going forward this player starts looking at his cards before he plays them? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[The Goober]

I'll take a stab at this - I'd love it if someone would double-check my math for me.

First, the other poster is right that you can't do this without knowing your SD. I think I read somewhere that 15BB/100 is a reasonable SD, so I'll use that. Also, I'll do it for within 2 SDs of the mean, which I believe is something like a 95% confidence.

Also, 3 days * 8 hr / day * 150 hands / hr = 3600 hands, not 4800.

So, if you are on the wrong side of variance, you could lose:

sqrt(time unit) * 2 * SD = sqrt(36) * 2 * 15 = 180 BB

So:
-1500 = 36 * WR - 180
WR = -36.7 BB / 100

For -750 BB:
-750 = 36 * WR - 180
WR = -15.8 BB / hr

Those numbers seem awfully low [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Maybe I screwed up the math somewhere? Perhaps 15 BB / 100 is much too low for the SD?