Loose flop call?

[MarkGritter]

Pacific Poker 0.25/0.50, 9 handed.

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts 1 SB.

UTG checks, 6 calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

This is the sort of hand that gives me trouble preflop, because it looks like two marginal Hold'em hands stuck together, but is probably much weaker. Is it worth a bet in LP or a half bet in the SB?

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 SB, 9 players)

SB checks, BB checks, 3 checks, MP1 bets, 4 calls, Hero...?

In Omaha Hi, this would be a clear call getting 14:1. But I'm unsure how to factor in the chance of splitting with low. Is the following reasoning correct?

A K on the turn gives me the nut straight, which should be good on this rainbow flop. But then any 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, or 8 on the river produces a low hand. That's 55% of the remaining cards, so my 4 K outs have to be discounted by about 50% to 2 outs.

(EDIT: duh, here is one mistake--- with a K I have a 50% chance of winning the whole pot with my straight, so the appropriate discount is 25%, or 3 outs.)

I have two outs to a set of 8's as well. But they produce a low hand, so they count as 1 out. Should they be discounted further due to possible straight redraws? (Although if I hit an 8 I pick up the 9's as possible straight outs as well.)

With 3 outs I need 14:1, which is what I'm getting, so this is still worth seeing the turn, I think.

[Nak]

Yeah, it's pretty close. If you hit your straight, you better know that you are going to get paid off big. Plus, you have to worry about the board pairing. I might be dropping this on the flop. I would never play it preflop even from SB.

Nak

In my opinion,

1. It's not a playable hand ever in O/8 (except to check from BB).
2. I would fold the flop. There's only one card (OK, 4 cards) that help you. There are 2 low cards board, so a reasonable probability that even if you hit your K you will get 1/2 at best. Then given the dearth of action you might be playing this heads up, meaning that at best you will get your money back less 1/2 of the rake (assuming board does not pair or no runner runner flush).
3. Not sure that the outs to the set of 8s help you. How do you know the bettor doesn't have Qs? He might have played Q-Q-X-X. So you'd be drawing dead. I assume he doesn't have A-A. Plus, as you said, an 8 makes a low. In sum, get rid of it.

[bodie]

This hand is very weak - I wouldn't keep it unless I was in one of the blinds. If it wasn't raised I would probably complete the small blind if it's at low limits and I feel that the BB isn't going to raise. Because you "never know" what the flop will bring.
The danger of that is when the flop brings what it did here: an inside straight possibility. I have to say that even flopping a straight in O8 is dangerous, much less drawing to an inside straight. Too often a flush is enabled or the board pairs. And here you're considering drawing to an inside straight where it's quite possible that a low will be enabled, the board could pair or your King won't come. Of course, you could get an 8, but that helps the low, which you don't have, limiting you to half the pot, unless someone else gets that straight!

I would muck this hand after the flop unless it was checked around and I could see a free card.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
Then given the dearth of action you might be playing this heads up, meaning that at best you will get your money back less 1/2 of the rake (assuming board does not pair or no runner runner flush).

[/ QUOTE ]

There were four calls to MP1's bet (otherwise I'd only be getting 10:1, not 14:1.) This seems like plenty of action--- do you expect that with 8 other people seeing the flop and at least 5 others seeing the turn that there won't be any bets on later streets?

At higher limits I would expect this situation simply doesn't arise.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]

The danger of that is when the flop brings what it did here: an inside straight possibility. I have to say that even flopping a straight in O8 is dangerous, much less drawing to an inside straight. Too often a flush is enabled or the board pairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, if a K falls, 1/4 of the time there is no flush possible. If somebody has three of a kind, then he is drawing to 10 outs on the river. This case is 5.7% of the possibilities when I hit.

The other 3/4 of the time there will be a flush draw possible, in addition to the 10 outs for a set. There are 7 suited cards let that aren't counted in the set outs. (Maybe 6 if I hold one.) This case is 29.0% of the time when I hit.

So about 35% of the time a flush or full house will be possible, right? ...hm, higher that I really anticipated.

Thanks for your comments.

[Yads]

This is a clear fold, even if your king hits on the turn, there are still lots of cards that you don't want to see on the river: any of the 3 Queens, 3 5s, 3 Aces, 3 Kings, or a card completing a flush (if that's possible) so on average let's add 6 cards (note how you cannot make a flush.) So that's 15 cards that probably take the whole pot away from you. Next you don't want to see any of the 4 2s, 4 3s, 4 4s, 4 6s, 4 7s, or 2 8s. That's another 22 cards you don't want to see on the river that take half of the pot away from you. Let's add another 2 cards that may give somebody the same straight (if a jack or ten hits). So by the river on average there are 5 cards that are safe, 24 cards that give you half of the pot and 15 cards that take the whole pot away:
whole pot: 0.114
half pot: 0.545
no pot: 0.341

So you'll hit your king on the turn 0.089 times So your EV by the river is:
0.089*0.114 + 0.5*0.089*0.545 = 0.0344. So you'd better be getting somewhere arond 30:1 for your call.

Let me know if my math or logic is off.

I am sorry, I misread your post. Didn't see the 4 calls until it came to you. It doesn't change my conclusion, but it does invalidate the part about a dearth of action.

[Yads]

Found the problem with my math, is that it gives the EV if you see both the turn and river cards, so it winds up being your effective odds. However, this means that your odds to see the turn are even lower than your effective odds.

[MarkGritter]

I have trouble believing it's that low, my calculations in another comment here put the chance of being outdrawn on the river is only about 35%--- IF all the possibilities that beat me are out there.

There are plenty of reasonable holdings that still give me 14:1 odds here, for example up against all three backdoor flush draws and the full house draw:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -o8 js td 8h 8d - 2c 3c 4h 6d - qh qd as 2s - kh th ac 4s -- qs 5c ah
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 528 enumerated boards containing Qs 5c Ah
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Js Td 8d 8h 20 67 453 8 0 0 0 0.090
3c 2c 6d 4h 136 147 381 0 380 0 12 0.510
As 2s Qd Qh 80 230 298 0 0 71 6 0.296
4s Ac Kh Th 22 76 444 8 0 71 6 0.103
</pre><hr />

I agree it's marginal, but getting this much action I think my implied odds are good.