Are the sets worth it?

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all.

3 situations, that happened recently, made me think.

1. I lost with 33 to 99, on a 2-3-9 flop. (and went out of SNG.)

2. I lost with 44 to 77, on a 4-7-7-x-x board. (Went out)

3. Won a very small pot with TT on a 3-7-T-Q-8 board.

The first two are examples of spots, where I was pretty sure I'm way ahead, and then I realized I'm way behind. The third is an example of a flopped set, that brought home almost nothing.

There's a concept, regarding SNG's, that advocates limping with PP's on early rounds, when the blinds are low and the stacks deep. Why do you do it? to try and spike a set, or get out cheaply. Most of the time (a little less than 90%) you get nothing, and lose 1BB. But here, well, as you see, I made it with 33, and with 44 (low FH), and lost with both much more than I wanted to, while with the tripe T I got nothing.

Conclusion: it might be that the danger in flopping a 2nd or 3rd set, or even a low FH, and the no-value (sometimes) of floping a nut-set with TT, makes limping with pairs, surely below 88-77, not very profitable, and even -EV? what do you think?

I know this is a very small sample, but my thoughts are more theoretical...(I hope).

BTW, I know I didn't put full hand histories here, but let's assume I played all three hands perfectly after the flop. In other words: assume somebody else played them... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]



PrayingMantis

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Set over set is rare. You just hit one of those weird disruptions of the space-time continuum. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

There's a saying from limit HE: If you flop a set and lose, and you *don't* lose a lot of money, you played it wrong.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a saying from limit HE: If you flop a set and lose, and you *don't* lose a lot of money, you played it wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

As usual, I concur with Kurn. I think this saying certainly applies to NL SNGs as well.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

Of course sets are worth it. If my opponent had $2000 with AA, and I was holding 44, I'd call a preflop raise of $100 even if I KNEW he had AA, simply because I would feel like I could get all his money if I hit a 4 on the flop.

Little pocket pairs and suited connector cards (to a lesser extent) are a prime example of maximizing return while minimizing risk. You can usually win a big pot with these types of cards if you can get in cheaply, simply because often times you will be able to throw your hand away after the flop. Ask any pro NLHE player and they almost always will tell you they would rather call a raise with 22 or 33 rather than KQs or AQo.

[triplc]

The beauty of low pocket pairs is that they are so hard to diagnose when the flop hits them. If I have AA, and the flop come 832 rainbow, what am I worried about. How many time am I going to lay this down, even to a raise.

Not to get caught up in watching pros play on TV, but watch Phil Ivey play. He plays low/middle pocket pairs every time he gets them. The reward is so huge, that the risk is worth it (layman's terms for saying the implied odds are huge). I'm never so happy as when I've got 44 and a AT4 flops, because it usually means I'm getting some more chips in my stack. And when the guy has AA or TT...oh well, there's another SNG starting up in a few minutes. Tough break. Move on.

CCC

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[Al_Capone_Junior]

The set-over-set or quads-over-your-set thing is SO rare i NEVER worry about it. It's only happened to me a handful of times in years and years of regular play.

the sets ARE worth it if there are two criteria that are met:

1) you can get away cheep if you miss (this includes the blinds being small when you limp)

2) you have a good chance to bust someone when you hit, i.e. the implied odds are there. So if you limp for 20, but collect 600, it was worth it. Rarely will you make NOTHING or VERY LITTLE on your set. I find that I often wind up busting someone when I play a hand where I flopped a set.

Also, you can generally assume someone WILL play virtually EVERY hand like a moron.

al

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
The set-over-set or quads-over-your-set thing is SO rare i NEVER worry about it. It's only happened to me a handful of times in years and years of regular play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Now I feel better, knowing that what happaned to you a handful of times during years and years, happened to me lately TWICE in ONE hour (set over set, quads over a boat)... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I guess on-line poker DOES educate you faster... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


Thanks for the reply, I think that what made me wrote this post was a really unlucky streak, which I tried to handle rationally.

And it's possible I'm not making the best out of my flopped sets, when I get them. I might be playing them a bit too aggressive (which should work good with low buy-in's calling-stations, but not with others), or that I SP them too much. Anyway, that is something I have to work on.


PrayingMantis

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
Now I feel better, knowing that what happaned to you a handful of times during years and years, happened to me lately TWICE in ONE hour (set over set, quads over a boat)...
I guess on-line poker DOES educate you faster...


[/ QUOTE ]

I was cracking up, I missed the point that it was twice in ONE HOUR!!! I'm still nearly in tears....

In the immortal words of the great Cartman:

"Ow! My ass!"

TRUST ME, these things are VERY rare! the rare times my opponent flops a bigger set than I do, well, he'll just win my money if he plays it right.

al

[Lou Krieger]

[ QUOTE ]
3 situations, that happened recently, made me think.

1. I lost with 33 to 99, on a 2-3-9 flop. (and went out of SNG.)

2. I lost with 44 to 77, on a 4-7-7-x-x board. (Went out)

3. Won a very small pot with TT on a 3-7-T-Q-8 board.

The first two are examples of spots, where I was pretty sure I'm way ahead, and then I realized I'm way behind. The third is an example of a flopped set, that brought home almost nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time you play a poker hand there is usually the possibility of a monster under the bed, but that shouldn't stop you from being aggressive when you believe you have the best of it.

Set over set is pretty rare, and the only way around losing some or all of your chips in these situations is to fold to any raise when you have flopped a set that is not the current nuts. If you do that, you'll seldom lose to set over set, but you'll find yourself blinded out of a tournament very quickly.

Playing a hand and losing with it is not the end of the world. And if you can't find enough positive EV in a set, you'll almost never find a hand worth taking a stand on.

Look at the bright side. Flopping a set should cause you to silently jump for joy, not bemoan the possibilities of a bigger set just waiting to pounce on you.
_______
Lou Krieger
Raise your game with Lou Krieger, author of "Interrnet Poker: How to Play and Beat Online Poker Games," at Royal Vegas Poker.
http://www.royalvegaspoker/lou