Two all-ins and I got a read

[SaintAces]

Four people left in a 10+1 Party Sit and Go. I pick up J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB. There is an UTG limper and I am positive he has AA. I have played eight-teen sit and gos with him and he has only ever limped UTG with AA.

There is one other limper that I have some notes on. He is a tight player that is passive preflop, but pushes any advantage on the flop.

Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check and AA pushes for 800. Next guy re-raises all in to 1000. He has 99 or TT. I am positive.

I have 900 and I...
(results to come)

[Jsb]

i definitely fold. especially if your reads are as perfect as you think they are. the AA guy has you both pretty dominated. at best, you win close to 40 percent of the time, and if you fold, the AA guy still has the 99/TT guy completely dominated. i personally try to avoid close situations like this on the bubble, especially when whether or not i fold, the TT/99 guys is almost sure to lose, making your ITM very close.

and you've played 18 10+1 party sit and go's with this guy? are you following him around or something? i've played quite a few and i think i've only played twice with a few of the many many people i've played with, don't know if i've ever played more than twice with the same person

[durron597]

Let's assume your reads are spot on. I'm willing to believe that the Aces read is right, but I'm not sure how you can make such a targeted read on the 99/TT guy here... unless your name is Phil Hellmuth. Is it? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyway, If he has pocket 9s without a club, you have a 55/45 edge. If he has pocket 9s WITH a club, it's only a 53/47 edge. Either way, the guy is almost certainly going to be beaten by the aces, and cripple his stack, and get you into the money. Unless the guy with aces also has a club. Then you are a 52/47 favorite over 9s without a club, and have basically a true coinflip if he does have the 9 of clubs. If he has tens, you are a slight dog to him. Yay! I can use twodimes!

Anyway, the point is that you are never more than a slight favorite to beat the guy who covers you. However, there is something else to consider. You are all relatively shortstacked with four people left, so the guy not involved in this hand must be a huge stack. That means that you will have almost no shot to do better than 3rd here if you do not win this coinflip that would rocket your stack up to over 3k, which would be close to the other leader but still not over him. Anyway, the above is only discussing whether you beat the guy who has you covered - if you beat him but the aces beats you, you are left with 200 to his 100. Since the blinds are not 200/400 (I hope) yet, you will survive to at least past his allin, assuming he loses.

Anyway, I'm not sure you want to get all your chips in the middle to ride a small edge to stay alive, when you're a slight dog even in the ideal situation to take the entire pot. I vote fold; you still have enough chips to make a stand and you will almost certainly live to see the money when UTG goes out here or the Button is forced to go allin with any two in the next two hands.

[Jsb]

i was trying to figure out why i hadn't gotten the same numbers as you when i plugged the stuff into twodimes for my post, i realize now it was because i assumed TT instead of 99. oops [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
but either way i still fold

[patrick dicaprio]

i dont see how you can be so positive of the read. are you saying that in 18 SnG's he has either raised or folded evertime unless he had AA. he never called with a hand like T9s or KQs??

this is a clear fold here on the flop. all you have is a draw and nothing else against two hands that are better than yours.

i dont see how you can be positive that he has TT or 99. if your hand reading and observational skills are that good then you should be playing on the WPT and not in $10 SnG's!

Pat

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see how you can be so positive of the read. are you saying that in 18 SnG's he has either raised or folded evertime unless he had AA. he never called with a hand like T9s or KQs??


[/ QUOTE ]

UTG.

I'd fold too, but I don't remember the last time I was ITM in a single. So be careful with my words of advice.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Four people left in a 10+1 Party Sit and Go. I pick up J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB. There is an UTG limper and I am positive he has AA. I have played eight-teen sit and gos with him and he has only ever limped UTG with AA.

There is one other limper that I have some notes on. He is a tight player that is passive preflop, but pushes any advantage on the flop.

Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check and AA pushes for 800. Next guy re-raises all in to 1000. He has 99 or TT. I am positive.

I have 900 and I...
(results to come)

[/ QUOTE ]

...see a psychiatrist for delusions of omnipotence. Then you fold.

eastbay

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
omnipotence

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean omniscience, the state of being all-knowing ("I know he has TT.") Omnipotence is all-powerful ("I will CHANGE his hand to TT with my mind!")

[carpola]

[ QUOTE ]
Four people left in a 10+1 Party Sit and Go. I pick up J T in the BB. There is an UTG limper and I am positive he has AA. I have played eight-teen sit and gos with him and he has only ever limped UTG with AA.

There is one other limper that I have some notes on. He is a tight player that is passive preflop, but pushes any advantage on the flop.

Flop comes 2 6 8
I check and AA pushes for 800. Next guy re-raises all in to 1000. He has 99 or TT. I am positive.

I have 900 and I...
(results to come)


[/ QUOTE ]

You can read these guys like a book yet you only have 900 with 4 left.

What happened?