Is this pocket pair a blessing or a curse?

L_Dude · #1 08-10-2005, 06:50 PM

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

I felt like this hand played me, rather than me playing it. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Is the turn an obvious fold? Is the river a missed raise?

Reads:
MP1 is 42/8/1.2/48
BB is 13/7/1.3/59
Obviously MP1 is loose, but BB has seemed reasonably solid. Neither has shown ridiculous postflop agression.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

 Seems straightforward enough 

Flop: (6 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

 I felt good until the cap

Turn: (9 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, MP1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

 I don't see how I can fold this hand, but I think I'm up against other trips or a straight or both

River: (20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

 I made my full house, but I'm not convinced I'm not up against quads. Should I raise here? Folding is certainly no longer an option.

Final Pot: 23 BB

shant · #2 08-10-2005, 06:54 PM

Raise the river.

L_Dude · #3 08-10-2005, 07:01 PM

Is this because MP1 is now ~3 times more likely to have had 2's than 6's, or do you put him on a different hand alltogether (like 32 or running a bluff attempt at the river)?

damaniac · #4 08-10-2005, 07:04 PM

54 actually seems like the most likely hand, but now there is only 1 possible combo of 66 that beats us, his VPIP isn't high enough for me to fear 62 just yet, doubtful he did what he did on the flop with 88 or 86, but 22/54 are big possibilities.

And with BB suddenly checking the river, same deal, looks like he got scared someone filled up. 54 for both of them? Or 54 for BB, 22 for MP? Not sure, but I think you are best vs. these 2 often enough that you should raise.

callmedonnie · #5 08-10-2005, 07:21 PM

raise here. you caught a money card.

On the turn when it first comes to you you're getting 6 to 1 and you're 3.5 to 1 to hit boat or quads, so I don't see how you can fold either. your hand is strong, very possibly behind, but lots of outs to what is most of the time the nuts.

W. Deranged · #6 08-10-2005, 07:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is so similar to the "Confused about my Set" or whatever it is kind of scary...

tyler_cracker · #7 08-10-2005, 07:32 PM

I'm not worried about the flop cap so much as i'm worried about the continued betting on the turn. I agree with others that you should value raise this river.

Is anyone capping the river after a 3-bet? How about a 3-bet from BB?

fatandy103 · #8 08-10-2005, 07:54 PM

raise the river....possibly cap if 3 bet (anyone have other thoughts) i put them on either 22 or 45...the turn action can most likely rule out 6 6 and 8 8 is very unlikely.

L_Dude · #9 08-10-2005, 08:10 PM

If I'm smart enough to raise the river (and I'm now convinced), I don't think I can cap a 3-bet from BB, that would imply that either I'm playing against 2 idiots or that I'm definitely beat. I don't like the odds of capping a check-3bet on the river by the BB in a huge pot. I think it's a call down.

I do agree that BB almost certainly has 54 by his play up to this point. That said, I think I can actually cap the river if the 3-bet comes from MP1. This is for value, right?

fatandy103 · #10 08-10-2005, 09:26 PM

quote "I do agree that BB almost certainly has 54 by his play up to this point. That said, I think I can actually cap the river if the 3-bet comes from MP1. This is for value, right?
"

what else would it be for? i don't think you are getting anyone to fold in this massive pot. anyone else have thoughts on a river cap? you have to figure at least one of these morons has the straight if not both, so you figure to win well over 50% if he 3 bets, and thats way more than 33% for value....am i totally brain dead here?