Win 7 SNGs in a row and make $1MM, haha - Page 3

Big Limpin' · #21 07-29-2005, 08:24 PM

Sorry for bump, but its a subject i want to talk a little about. Its been brought to my attention that noble poker has updated their software to allow movable windows. Before, you could run multiple tables, but they would all be stacked upon each other in the same 800x600 window. Major pain in ass (and possible disaterous concequences) from tables popping to the forefront right when you are about to pull slider all the way to right and click push.

So yeah, if they now have distinct windows, that issue is gone. So now, to win 7 in a row. I've personally never won 7 in a row on any site (dont think so anyways, id prolly remember that), but ive for sure won like 3 or 4 in a row several times. So lets say you took a run at this. And i am talking several weeks/months here.

Lets say you were quad tabling (continuously). Whenever you took a 1st, you would stop re-opening new tables. THerefore, every time you won, you would be playing 3 tables. If you should be so lucky as to win the next one that completes, you would then be just 2 tabling, and then perhaps 1 tabling if the gods smiled.

If we take it as intuitive that your P(1st) increases as # of simultaneous tables decreases, then your P(grandslam) ought to increase. Now dont get me wrong, its still a super longshot. But getting a grand slam in this manner must be somewhat more likely that in just continuous quadding, or playing in sets.

So lets say that playing in this manner for a few weeks or months will produce a handful of grand slams. Remember, these are 10+1s we are talking about. Im sure the "elite" of this forum could place 1st 20% of the time. Especially at noble, which is on par with pacific in my (limited) experience. There would for sure be resultant grans slams. ANd more than a few im sure.

OK, so you have won 4 in a row. You take a break, get some fresh air, strech legs, maybe go for a jog, whatever gets your brain thinking correctly. Then you come back and SINGLE TABLE, TEN DOLLAR TOURNAMENTS, AT A FISHY SITE. I am convinced that the best 2+2ers could get 1st >25% of the time in this scenario. I think even i could. ANd im like a B- 2+2er. I dont even think >0% would be too unreasonable for a Giga-esque player if he is one tabling with weak competition. Having already pulled your G.S., you only need win 3 in a row. give a hypothetical sharks a 1/3 chance of winning, thats only 1:27....even dude with 1/4 chance of winning...only 1:64. hell, even the blind monkey who pays rake is only 1:1000 against.

Now im not saying that its likely you would win $1,000,000. Say you got 3 grand slams in a month (optimistic, but hey, noble 10+1s remember), and were 1:50 to get 3 more wins single tabling. thats only 1:17 against. and remember, you are obviously CRUSHING the game while trying, granted thats insignificant $ for you 215 8-tablers.

BL' who has pulled these numbers/odds out of his ass, but feels they are at least ballpark reasonable.

Anyone want to discuss?

( and boo moderator for locking the most recent noble 1MM thread)

KramerTM · #22 07-29-2005, 08:33 PM

Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

bjb23 · #23 07-29-2005, 08:37 PM

hey bl, what are the starting stacks/blind structure for these sngs?? obviously this would have a huge impact on P(win).

bj

valenzuela · #24 07-29-2005, 08:41 PM

Aleomagus got 7 4ths once, so it can be done!! my record is 5 wins on a row( BUT two were 6 handed only, it was on $1 sngs and it was on UB with longer structure.)

Big Limpin' · #25 07-29-2005, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]are you trying to be funny here?

Big Limpin' · #26 07-29-2005, 08:56 PM

working only on memory of sng structure there, i believe they are timed levels, and 1k stacks. read this to mean that there is an extended bubble, even more extended ITM, and longer still HU, thus my optimistic projections on p(1) for a very good player.

viennagreen · #27 07-29-2005, 09:02 PM

so you're saying, basically, play sets of four until you grand slam, then single table?

i just looked through my old finish distributions for the 50s where i had a 20% ROI (i import HHs into PT, but also keep an Excel spreadsheet where i enter in finishes as they occur)----

over a period of 5000 SNGs of mostly 4-tabling, the most 1st place finishes i had in a row was 4 (on 4 different occasions).... the most ITM in a row i had was 8.

with a 20% 1st places--- chance of 4 in a row are 1:625

with a 25% chance at 1st place single tabling, chances of getting 3 more in a row are 1:40000.... is that right?

1:40000 chance is still pretty slim...

Apathy · #28 07-29-2005, 09:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of intrigueing, I might be interested in doing this while playing 215s if other people would also do it and we split the million should anyone hit 7 in a row... I have a feeling that the EV would still be much lower then using that time to just play my regular game though.

Big Limpin' · #29 07-29-2005, 10:08 PM

dude, point taken, but those are 55s, in a structure that rewards small edges played over and over and over. (partly becasue the SnGs dont last so long). What do you think you could acchieve at a fish(ier?!) site, playing in a TIMED LEVEL game (read more skill divergence ITM), and playing TEN PLUS ONES?

For a PP 20%er at 55s, you should be embarassed if you cant get a 30-40% ROI in these games.

Adjust your "odds" to reflect that,say, 20/15/15 dist'n when quadding, and 25/20/15 for the final 3 when single tabling.

This isnt meant to be rhetorical, i honestly dont know the results of calcs for these #s, but the odds of scoring 1MM are exponentially increased with ROI jumps.

IF you do in fact run the numbers, im very interested to hear how this affects the odds.

BL' - who feels he may have been misudterstood as to believing this is a get rich quick sceme....naw man, i just think its a pretty cool overlay for anyone who is in the 10+1 range bankrool wise, and wants to gambool at retiring in their mid-twenties [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

valenzuela · #30 07-29-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
dude, point taken, but those are 55s, in a structure that rewards small edges played over and over and over. (partly becasue the SnGs dont last so long). What do you think you could acchieve at a fish(ier?!) site, playing in a TIMED LEVEL game (read more skill divergence ITM), and playing TEN PLUS ONES?

For a PP 20%er at 55s, you should be embarassed if you cant get a 30-40% ROI in these games.

Adjust your "odds" to reflect that,say, 20/15/15 dist'n when quadding, and 25/20/15 for the final 3 when single tabling.

This isnt meant to be rhetorical, i honestly dont know the results of calcs for these #s, but the odds of scoring 1MM are exponentially increased with ROI jumps.

IF you do in fact run the numbers, im very interested to hear how this affects the odds.

BL' - who feels he may have been misudterstood as to believing this is a get rich quick sceme....naw man, i just think its a pretty cool overlay for anyone who is in the 10+1 range bankrool wise, and wants to gambool at retiring in their teens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ] that would be cool!!!