$11: Make this call on the bubble with a ministack at the table?

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

SB (t1480)
Hero (t2500)
UTG (t3900)
Button (t120)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB raises all-in 1280, Hero calls t1080.


I believe that I can afford to lose this since the ministack needs to escape from three hands in a row to survive. I can call and lose, and still have a great chance of at least finishing ITM.

If I call and win, I increase my chances of finishing first by quite a lot since I will have nearly half the chips on the table.

SB seemed competent. He seemed to steal every time his future fold equity was threatened, so I deemed him capable of making this play with less than a monster. I realize that the first clause of the previous sentence doesn't necessarily allow me to jump to the second clause's conclusion. But what are ya gonna do...

Am I risking too much for less reward than I am assuming? Thoughts?

[tjh]

Man that is a close decision.

I would say it is read dependent. If you put him on a steal with less than an A then you call here.

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tjh

[djj6835]

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so I deemed him capable of making this play with less than a monster.

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Even considering the button only has 120 chips? I would think his range of hands here tightens up considerably in this situation. Especially since you have him covered by over 1000 chips.

[spentrent]

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Man that is a close decision.

I would say it is read dependent. If you put him on a steal with less than an A then you call here.

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tjh

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Maybe this sounds stupid: if he made that bet with A7o face up I still might have called.

[spentrent]

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so I deemed him capable of making this play with less than a monster.

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Even considering the button only has 120 chips? I would think his range of hands here tightens up considerably in this situation. Especially since you have him covered by over 1000 chips.

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True enough but he's also thinking "why would this joker call with less than KK? I can push anything here." Note that I only consider him capable of thinking that way because of his excellent bubble play (it was a fairly long bubble).

[djj6835]

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True enough but he's also thinking "why would this joker call with less than KK? I can push anything here." Note that I only consider him capable of thinking that way because of his excellent bubble play (it was a fairly long bubble).


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In that case I think you should call. Although I still think that because you have him covered by a decent amount he should expect to be called by a much wider range of hands.

[adanthar]

If this is a 2+2'er, I probably fold this hand face up (and then spite odds call him with T7o the next time he does this when the situation is just a bit different).

With anyone else who doesn't get how the bubble works, I call.