over-flush odds

[Cobra]

This information is derived from an article I read written by Brian Alspach. He has some great poker probability articles. Google Alspach + poker and you will get his web site. Specifically the following probabilities are that the board comes three to a suit, you have two of that suit, and you are wondering if anyone else was dealt two to that suit with a card higher than your high card.

If you have K obviously there can only be one higher card.

Probability 9 Opponents-.064, 6 opponents-.042, 4 oppon-.021

If you have a 6,7 and the board has a JT you have 5 cards left higher than your 7.

Prob 9 Opponents-.214, 6 Oppenents-.146, 4 opponents-.075

Cobra

[elitegimp]

Here's another way to think about it:

If you are 100% sure your opponent has the flush (he's fairly passive and wouldn't raise a board with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s without two of his own), then there are C(8,2) = 28 possible hands [There are 8 diamonds left in the deck, and 28 ways to put 2 of them together in a 2-card hand]. As mentioned previously, there are 7 hands that contain A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Conclusion: IN THIS SCENARIO, where you are 100% sure your opponent has the flush as well, he beats you 7 times out of 28, or 25% of the time. Since you are a 3:1 favorite, this is a clear 3-bet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]