Estimating Tournament Win Rates

Greetings,


I am a live action player with approx 600 hours under my belt. I have reasonable win rates in all games that I play. Often quoted is the approximation of "one big bet per hour"; and my experience confirms that it is a win rate to be expected by competent players.


Recently, I started playing in tournaments and I have not seen much discussion on estimating win rates in tournament play.


Do tournament players use the winrate (i.e $/hour) as a measure of success as live action players do? If so, what is reasonable for various tournament structures/buy-ins?


I have attempted to analyze this concept using a % advantage. The case in mention is a single table tournament like the ones found on Paradise Poker. $10 buy in with $1 entry fee. $50 first place, $30 second place and $20 third place.


For example, in blackjack players can achieve anywhere from 0.5% to 2% advantage using a card counting system. Basic strategy yields approx a -0.5% disadvantage. These percentages are quoted for all kinds of casino games. For example, if you have 0.5% EV, for every $100 dollars you wager you expect to win $0.50 in the long run.


Let's try to figure it out for live action play, say $5/$10 holdem. Assuming 30 hands per hour. You will pay blinds approx. 3 times per hour which equals approx. $21 dollars in blinds. A tight aggressive player plays approx. 15% of hands so you might play 5 hands in an hour. Assume you wager on average $35 dollars on each of these hands (NOTE: THIS FIGURE MAY BE WAY OFF!!). Some you will fold on the flop, some will go to the river, some will involve raises etc. That is $175 + $21 wagered in an hour ... about $200.


A competent player wins 1BB per hour which is $10 . Therefore

$10/$200 this translates into a 5% EV. So, for every $100 dollars you wager on the poker table you win $5. I have disregarded the rake in this discussion.


Now let's apply this to tournament play ... in our example you have wagered $11 dollars ($10 plus $1 entry fee). These tournaments usually last 1 hr.

Here is the big assumption: YOU SHOULD HAVE THE SAME WIN RATE IN

TOURNAMENT PLAY AS LIVE ACTION PLAY!!! (OR CLOSE TO IT) ... LET'S

ASSUME YOU ARE PLAYING AGAINST THE SAME PLAYERS AS IN THE LIVE ACTION TABLE.


Therefore 5% of $10 is $0.50. Therefore I expect to win $0.50 an hour (remember this means I get back $0.50 plus my $10 )at the single table tournament in question. A complete waste of time! Playing $5/$10 holdem appears to be 20 times more profitable than a single table $10 tournament.


What is the point of all this?? It is my attempt at getting a grasp on predicting winrates for various tournanement structures ....


I will leave my post at this point since it is getting rather long.

Any feedback, comments etc. are much appreciated. Also, if anyone knows of literature that discusses estimating tourney win rates ,please let me know.


Thanks,

JM