Bush 2:1 odds? Need some math nerds to check my work.

[EarlCat]

Posted this in the "Politics" forum, but nobody responded, so maybe here makes more sense. Someone check my please math.

RealClearPolitics.com shows 9 toss-up states: FL (27), HI (4), IA (7), MN (10), NH (4), NM (5), OH (20), PA (21), and WI (10).

Among the other states, Bush has 227 votes, and Kerry has 203. Assuming all Bush-leaning states vote Bush, and all Kerry-leaning states vote Kerry, and a 50/50 chance of winning any toss-up state, I figure the odds are Bush 68%, Kerry 30%, and a tie 2%

Bush needs 43 or more of these votes to win, 42 makes a tie, and 41 or less gives Kerry the win. I calculated 512 possible outcomes. Of those, Bush wins 350, Kerry wins 153, and they tie 9.

Am I off base predicting Bush has roughly 2:1 odds?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre...04/RCP_EC.html