Your move on flop

[yabastid]

11. Don't remember any reads.

1) Do you like the preflop raise or hate it?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) converter

Button (t650)
SB (t1540)
BB (t2805)
UTG (t1385)
Hero (t1620)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t425</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t275.

Flop: (t925) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero???

[gildwulf]

With your chip stack and the blind structure AND the position, I would probably fold this and wait for a better spot. I would probably make this move from the SB or maybe CO.

[octaveshift]

I don't hate the raise. How did BB get his stack? I might push the flop, depending on the read, which you don't have, soooo......

[yabastid]

BB got his stack being a 'tard.

[JayKon]

Call and here is why.

The pot is $1,225 and it costs you $300 to call. Thats 4-1 pot odds.

So, what could he have bet with? A flush, set, two pair, top pair, other pair?

For just the turn:

Assume a flush (40%) 7 remaining hearts out of 45 unseen cards ~1 in 6.5
Assume a set, or two pair, no heart (20%) 9 remaining hearts, plus the 3 non-heart K's out of 47 unseen cards ~1 in 4
Assume AQ (15%)the hearts and K's are outs. (same for 35%)
Assume KQ, QJ, or Qx (10%) add 3 more A's to the outs for 15 out of 47 unseen cards ~1 in 3.
Assume a stone cold bluff that only wins if he pairs and you don't ~10%.

7 outs 15% (1 in 6.5) 40% of the time = 2.8
12 outs 25% (1 in 4) 35% of the time = 4.2
15 outs 33% (1 in 3) 15% of the time = 2.25
41 outs 87% (41 in 47) 10% of the time = 4.1 = 13.35 outs

13/47 ~= 1 in 3.5 and the pot is offering ~1 in 4

Your opponent didn't bet enough to make taking a card off incorrect.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
Call and here is why.

The pot is $1,225 and it costs you $300 to call. Thats 4-1 pot odds.

So, what could he have bet with? A flush, set, two pair, top pair, other pair?

For just the turn:

Assume a flush (40%) 7 remaining hearts out of 45 unseen cards ~1 in 6.5
Assume a set, or two pair, no heart (20%) 9 remaining hearts, plus the 3 non-heart K's out of 47 unseen cards ~1 in 4
Assume AQ (15%)the hearts and K's are outs. (same for 35%)
Assume KQ, QJ, or Qx (10%) add 3 more A's to the outs for 15 out of 47 unseen cards ~1 in 3.
Assume a stone cold bluff that only wins if he pairs and you don't ~10%.

7 outs 15% (1 in 6.5) 40% of the time = 2.8
12 outs 25% (1 in 4) 35% of the time = 4.2
15 outs 33% (1 in 3) 15% of the time = 2.25
41 outs 87% (41 in 47) 10% of the time = 4.1 = 13.35 outs

13/47 ~= 1 in 3.5 and the pot is offering ~1 in 4

Your opponent didn't bet enough to make taking a card off incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

NH

[JayKon]

Based on the statement: [ QUOTE ]
BB got his stack being a 'tard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would make the following changes:

7 outs 15% (1 in 6.5) 15% of the time = 1.05
12 outs 25% (1 in 4) 20% of the time = 2.4
15 outs 33% (1 in 3) 50% of the time = 7.5
41 outs 87% (41 in 47) 15% of the time = 6.15 = 17.1 outs

17/47 ~= 1 in 2.75 and the pot is offering ~1 in 4

PUSH and get some fold equity thrown in.

[adanthar]

You have a gutshot, nut draw, overcard and some FE, easiest push ever.

[yabastid]

thank you, adanthar. It's what I did.

yabastid

[kamelion44]

I agree. Also, isn't the preflop raise pretty standard, assuming a normal table with normal preflop play?