300BB "Safe" Bankroll.

[RocketManJames]

I've heard the 300BB bankroll number tossed around quite a bit. I read that for a winning player, 300BB is generally safe, based on typical win rate and typical variance of winning players. It follows that if you lose 300BB, then chances are you're a losing player.

How does the flip side work? If you win 300BB are you just as unlikely to be a losing player? I was thinking about this a bit, and I don't think it's symmetric, because if you win a pot, you win a good chunk, whereas if you lose one, you lose a much smaller amount. To further clarify, my current belief is that it is probably easier for a losing player to win 300BB than a winning player to lose 300BB.

This, however, is countered a bit by the fact that there is indeed a rake and extra money is being taken away from you when you win.

So, that said, how many BB would you have to win (irrespective of sample size) such that you could conclude with high statistical confidence that you were a winning player?

-RMJ