is it just me or did you notice it too?

#1 08-09-2005, 12:28 PM

it seems to me that 85% of the time one person is delt a pocket pair at a full table someone else has one too.

do any of you guys see this too?

XXXNoahXXX · #2 08-09-2005, 12:40 PM

No.

Just in case you plan on posting in the future, try to include a question/insight/theory in your posts. People around here aren't too keen on Seinfeldesque "I mean whats the deal with..." or "Did you ever notice" posts. Bad beats and Brag posts are also frowned upon. With then players at a full ring table the odds of two getting a pocket pair are def. not 85%, these instances just stick out in your mind because PP are more likely to see and flop and therefore still be around come showdown time. Its like people saying how come whenever someone has AQ another person has AK. You see it often because if a flop comes AA3, AK and AQ are both likely going to think there hand is good and you will see them showdown. Pick any random hand, how about J5os. Just play a few thousand hands, and it'll seem like J5os is coming up all the time, but its not coming up any more than AA, etc. Its all in your head...

LetYouDown · #3 08-09-2005, 12:49 PM

His post wasn't saying that the odds of two people getting pocket pairs were 85%. His post should be interpreted as "given that one player has a pocket pair, what are the odds that another player has a PP as well". While not 85%, it's still reasonably high.

[ QUOTE ]
it'll seem like J5os is coming up all the time, but its not coming up any more than AA, etc

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh...no.

mosdef · #4 08-09-2005, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it'll seem like J5os is coming up all the time, but its not coming up any more than AA, etc

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh...no.

[/ QUOTE ]

sure it will - don't forget that the site is rigged so AA comes up just as often, even though there is more J5o hands.

bobman0330 · #5 08-09-2005, 01:36 PM

Given that one player has a PP, it's marginally (really marginally) more likely that someone else has one right?

i.e., HU, if one player has a pair of deuces, it's slightly more likely that the other player has a PP than if player 1 had 32

LetYouDown · #6 08-09-2005, 01:43 PM

Quickly...

If you're playing heads up and you have a pocket pair, the odds that your opponent will have a PP are:

[12 * C(4,2) + 1]/C(50,2) = 5.9592%

If you don't have a PP:

[2 * C(3,2) + 11 * C(4,2)]/C(50,2) = 5.8776%

So, yes.

XXXNoahXXX · #7 08-09-2005, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
His post wasn't saying that the odds of two people getting pocket pairs were 85%. His post should be interpreted as "given that one player has a pocket pair, what are the odds that another player has a PP as well". While not 85%, it's still reasonably high.

[ QUOTE ]
it'll seem like J5os is coming up all the time, but its not coming up any more than AA, etc

[/ QUOTE ]
Uh...no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welllllllllll, I'm an idiot.

AaronBrown · #8 08-10-2005, 07:50 PM

I don't notice this, and my first reaction is selection bias. I have noticed that hold'em hands at showdown are much more similar than would be predicted by simple statistics. I looked at one large sample of hands where almost 1 time in 50 when two players went to showdown they had exactly the same cards except for suit.

The reason is clearly that good players sense when they are beaten by a lot. How often do you see a pair of sevens beaten by three Kings? Or a flush beat an Ace high? Hands tend to go to showdown when both players have reasonable shots at winning given their information.

If half the hands in which one player has a pocket pair another player does as well, but the pocket pairs end up in a showdown much more often than two random hands at the table, you could observe your 85%.