Pot Commitment (long)

Checkraise,


You are correct to point out that pot commitment is fallacious when one considers only the amount of money they have invested in the pot, but I do not think Mike Norton is doing this. Rather, he is making the excellent point that somebody with AQ would be getting better odds to a KTx flop with more money in the pot preflop. (Of course, they are getting the right odds to draw for the gutshot if 2 bets are going in with this many players, but situations surely exist where they will be correct to draw if 3 bets went in but not if 2 bets went in.) I don't think Norton was basing his decision on his money, but on the total money in the pot.


Now, it doesn't matter whether that money comes from your hands or is a free donation from the house, but it still affects your odds, and pot commitment is a very real thing. If enough money goes in the pot preflop, and for whatever reason you are in the hand (this is rare for a solid player without an extremely solid starting hand), you are going to draw to a lot of crazy garbage, like runner-runner double gutshot straights or something. For example, if Mike had 3-bet and it ended up getting capped around, he should probably hold onto his Ks even if an A flops, looking for an elusive K to hit the board. That is what I think is meant by pot commitment.


Good post.


Mike

I think a key to raising preflop with this hand in particular is your ability to not marry yourself to it. One of the most misunderstood things I hear people say is something like "J-10s plays well against a large field" - its a true statement but only because it is easy to let go if you miss the flop and there are a number of ways it could hit the flop. To hear some people talk about it, you'd think J-10s WINS more often just because its a large multiway field.


KK does NOT play well against a large field, because often you will lose the hand AND have to pay off to the river (barring an ace falling).


Anyways to address some of your specific points: Furthermore, these guys are coming regardless of whether its 2 bets, 3 bets, or 4 bets. Why not just flat call for deception purposes later?


My answer: I want them to come for 4 bets. I have a better hand than them! Deception has no purpose here as you are going to have to win a showdown regardless. I'd rather let them know I have the big duke and if they want to chase, I want them to know it ain't gonna be cheap.


The closest analogy I can draw to that is a college professor using a 10 year old paradigm to try to explain a "real world" situation that is much more complicated than the model structure.


I don't see the analogy. This is not a paradigm or a general rule of thumb. When you have KK, you have the most pot equity, so build a big pot.


How am I doing in the current session


Possible to take into consideration, but not a big factor for me. As I said, whether they call with a worse hand or not is fine with me. Every dollar they put in the pot is more mine than anyone else's. If they fold, my odds of winning the already large pot grow faster.


Deception


I don't care who knows it, I ALWAYS RAISE PREFLOP WITH KK! My philosophy on such things has always been to raise with MORE hands preflop so that my raises will already have deception. I have always lived by the credo "It's easier to NOT make a hand than to make one", so I want my opponents to know that when I have something I'm going to be pounding it through the table, so that later, when I DON'T have anything, I can pound it through the table anyways and all they will be thinking is "bah, he's got KK again, that lucky young punk...fold". I see people limp in with KK or AA often enough, and I assure you that I don't later think that when they limp it probably means AA or KK. They may win an extra bet out of me or two on THIS hand, but I'll make it all back at some point later when they let me in cheaply preflop and I suck out on them with something I would have folded for two bets before the flop.


Playing skills


There isn't much in the way of playing skills that is going to win this pot. This kind of pot requires someone to say "here is the best hand" after all the betting on the river. When a pot gets to 15BB, I always expect it to be see a show down. In your case, there are 8BB in the pot preflop, so I'd imagine it will get that big very quickly. If I thought I could outplay the field, I would be limping in with a much wider range of hands, but that doesn't have much implication to me here.

I agree that raising with Kings is correct, and that if you raised with them every time you got them, it wouldn't be a mistake. I raise with them 90% of the time or better. I think that sometimes it's good to just call with them to mix up your play a bit, and in the BB with a bunch of limpers and a button raise this is the perfect time to do it. I wouldn't let a bunch of people limp in cheaply--if everybody calls to my BB, I would raise. This particular situation is exactly what I'm looking for to mix up my play with AA or KK. I would also have smooth called if I were in the SB. I made the same play with AA online, we took the flop 9 handed for 2 bets each, the flop came up A-K-J of hearts. I bet into that flop and it was capped by 3 of us. The turn brought another Jack and we capped it again--I only had to call along with the other two. On the river I jumped to life and slowed them down to a 3 bet. It was $0.50/$1 limit and I took down a $30 pot. Huge for that game. Had I raised preflop I don't think I could have ridden my opponents coat tails all the way to the river. Anyway, this is one of the very few situations that I would limp with AA or KK. Normally I will cap the betting if I'm given the chance.

Michael -


You're right in saying that if the preflop even gets raised once, the pot will be relatively big going into the flop if there are a lot of callers...and this will justify odds in drawing to some interesting hands. This exact situation came up in a session I played last night (or this morning, depending on the way you think about it =)


$4-$8...I had JTo in middle position. There was a caller in front of me, I called, three people called to the button, the SB called, and the BB raised to make it eight to go. We all called, sending 14 SB into the pot preflop. The flop came down Ah Qd 5c. The BB bet out, and I did a quick assessment on the odds of a K hitting on the turn. 47 cards, 4 Kings, 43:4 = almost 11:1...easily worth a call, especially with the hidden value of my hand and the further action I'd get from the BB if I hit. Two of the players behind me called. Needless to say, the Kh came up to put a two-flush on the board, and I hit my gutshot. The BB bet out again, I raised, guy behind me called, other player folded...the BB reraised, I capped, and the other player folded (he figured me out for JT and her for JT, AA, or AK...don't know what he had.) The BB called.


The 8h came out on the river, she checked to me, and I checked it down...small possibility she was on a free-roll with Jh Th and was looking for a checkraise, but I had her pegged for the same hand. I thought about betting to represent the flush, but there's no way she'd lay her hand down with all that action. I didn't think she was on any other flush draw, since the Ah and Kh were out there. We split the pot with our Broadway straights and shared all the dead money from the callers. Not quite the way I wanted it to work out, but I'm not complaining.


In the situation with KK and seeing an A flop, you could play it in a lot of ways. You could bet out immediately and potentially drive people out (since you're going to call anyways...perhaps even call a raise.) See how much action you'll get and who's willing to stick around. However, if the flop comes all suited with the Ace (and you don't have that suit,) you're dead. So pick your spots carefully, just as any good poker player will do.

1. Yes, I would 3 bet with KK because of the fact


people are willing to pay 2 bets cold. 2. With quads, this is one of the rare times you can


slowplay. I like your play on the other streets.


I don't see any other way to maximize the hand.

The issue is "big hand here" does not mean a thing to your opponents. Deception is useless against many LL players because they are only playing their hand and could care less what others have. This is the reason you made so much money with the quads.Hence, I believe it is correct to 3 bet with KK.


I'm a little confused, you think 16-1 versus 24-1 odds for your opponents is a good thing. The only hand you gain on is if your opponents have an underpair and try to hit a set. All the other ones they can still play (although in this case it turned out to be false).


Your results for a given night should have no bearing on how you play the hand.

TR,


If the hand gets capped preflop, then opponents are getting about 24:1 for a call on the flop. That makes drawing at any underpair as well as any backdoor draw correct. By making the pot this huge, then my opponents will be correct to call with just about any legitimate holding.


Pretend for a moment that the flop doesn't come down KKT. Rather... say I do 3-bet and it gets capped. I'm looking at a flop of AJ8 two-tone. Now I'm getting 24:1 to call a flop bet in which I know that I'm behind against 8 opponents. I might still be behind even if I catch my K on the turn. I'm "committed" because of the odds that the pot is giving me to chase.


By keeping preflop at 2 bets... I make it easier to get away from a hand like KK if the flop does come AJ8. That's my point. I find it's a very rare person indeed who will put 4 bets in preflop and fold on the flop when it comes unfavorably, especially in LL.


Here are 3 more considerations that I forgot to post in the previous one:


1) KK against 8 opponents more than likely has to improve to win. Either by making the high end/nut straight, a flush, or at least a set... KK must improve.


2) The jackpot... when the A falls on the turn, the pot in the middle of the table takes on secondary importance to me. With such a board and the action, I'm thinking more about the $50k rather than the $300+ in the middle. I've seen people do stupid things and throw away hands that would have made a jackpot situation.


3) All other flops besides those containing KK as part of them are "dangerous". All the draws, backdoor or otherwise, and other strong hands will continue to the river because they are getting odds.


Mike

By keeping preflop at 2 bets... I make it easier to get away from a hand like KK if the flop does come AJ8. That's my point.


*** You are correct about this. But, I think you


would probably lay down anyway despite pot


size because with 8 opponents the odds are


someone has an ace. ***


Your other points.


1. You are correct, KK probably will need to improve.


Another option is to raise with pairs, or simply


call with ALL pairs despite the ranks. Assume you


need a set (or better) to win.


2. The jackpot, which in this case is large enough to


alter the play. I agree with this, another reason


your slowplay was valid.


3. Assume you flop a set, not a quad. Here, you would


likely check-raise both the flop and turn and


maybe the river.


Your concept of pot-manipulation does ask some interesting questions. But, I would still 3 bet with KK despite the pot size.