options play? elroy's free-money spread...

Okay, as a trend trader, I am suddenly buying tech in February/March of 2000. Where was I the previous 10 years?


What did you do, sell short in 1995 when P/E ratios got too high?


John, you don't know JACK. But I don't particularly care, except to the extent the popularity of your way of thinking is a good illustration of why trend-trading works!


But don't take my advice, perform your own statistical analysis of the chart, and see if it didn't exhibit serial correlation over a large set of coefficients! Heck, in the last 20 years, up years were 8 times as likely to be followed by up years, down years were equally likely to be followed by up years as down years.


I didn't invent this stuff, and nobody taught it to me. I just copied it from the people with the faster cars and the bigger houses.


And in case you haven't noticed, the retail commission houses, whether Merrill or E*Trade, have not had a whole lot of high living since the Seventies. Where have you been?


And so far as choppiness weeding out trend traders, the evidence of this is that the market has become trendy. Of course, you stated yourself that the market was a straight-up trend with no chop, so I am hard pressed to fatho, what we are arguing about!


eLROY

If so maybe that's when to buy em [img]/images/smile.gif[/img]!