Chasing flush draws

[Barcalounger]

Scuba, you've got at least one fan. I find your posts to always be smart and thought provoking. Damn the naysayers, keep them coming.

Barca's mantra goes more like: Drink more, think less.

[Seadood228]

I think it's a pretty clear call.

As for the preflop raise, looks okay to me, although admittedly I probably wouldn't have tried for the isolation so early.

Not that it's bad.. It's just me (I suck)

[RoyalLance]

What I would have done is call the 45 chip bet to see the flop. AK suited of offsuit is not that great a hand to re-raise with.

As for post flop, If you were going to call the all-in bet, you might as well go all-in yourself. Also, there was a pot sized bet followed by and all-in raise. That means somebody either has a big pocket pair or a set, so you may be so behind, only a flush will save you. You should have layed down your draw and wait for a better spot.

[NegativeEV]

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The problem is that there aren't that many that post 300-400 posts a month with an estimated 10-20% of their posts that are pure drivel.

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Scuba's posts are OFTEN the only ones on the SnG forum front page that contain meaningful discussion of strategy and STT game play. Encouraging him to post less is just plain bad for the forum. You won't find a single poster who has sparked more good hand analysis/debate in the past two months, so your "post less" mantra aimed at Scuba is shxxxty.

Your strategy/gameplay comments on his hand posts are very welcome, your direction for him to post less is not.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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I'm going to bet 90% of the time if my opponent checks the flop.

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Not so easy to do when you have a multi-way pot, however. If your goal is to isolate UTG+2, raising to 100 lowers this possibility.

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Betting 100 is a huge bet at level 1. In addition, this is a re-raise, so it should carry more weight than a simple raise to 100. A re-raise indicates a very strong hand AND any caller is risking a re-re-raise from the original raiser behind them.

If they are stupid enough to call 100, they are probably stupid enough to call 140.

To ensure isolation, you probably have to raise 200. Now you've forced the raiser to fold hands that you dominate (AQ/AJ). You've also created a pot so big that you can't buy it cheaply if you miss.

[Bigwig]

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To ensure isolation, you probably have to raise 200. Now you've forced the raiser to fold hands that you dominate (AQ/AJ). You've also created a pot so big that you can't buy it cheaply if you miss.

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Okay, so don't raise.

Call.

[rickr]

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To ensure isolation, you probably have to raise 200. Now you've forced the raiser to fold hands that you dominate (AQ/AJ). You've also created a pot so big that you can't buy it cheaply if you miss.

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Okay, so don't raise.

Call.

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That's my line this early with players left to act. The first couple levels are like a bees nest. Your reraise can be like swatting the nest with a stick. See the flop and play from there.

Later,
Rick

[Scuba Chuck]

This is just for my sake.

We all agree that there are potentially 15 clean outs. I think this is a mistake to assume. I think it's likely the Ace is dead. It's also likely that I've lost some hearts to some of the other hands that have folded, or are in any of the players cards still in the hand.

There were 20 cards dealt, and the flop makes 23. 14 of those cards no longer "exist." 4 hearts currently exist in my hand and on the board. There are 29 cards remaining in the deck. I'm sure some book somewhere has done a rough estimation on how to calculate outs in this scenario.

Can anyone point me in the right direction?

[Bigwig]

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This is just for my sake.

We all agree that there are potentially 15 clean outs. I think this is a mistake to assume. I think it's likely the Ace is dead. It's also likely that I've lost some hearts to some of the other hands that have folded, or are in any of the players cards still in the hand.

There were 20 cards dealt, and the flop makes 23. 14 of those cards no longer "exist." 4 hearts currently exist in my hand and on the board. There are 29 cards remaining in the deck. I'm sure some book somewhere has done a rough estimation on how to calculate outs in this scenario.

Can anyone point me in the right direction?

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I don't think there is any 'book way' to calculate this, because it's a scenario with far too many variables. Here's how I do it:

A's could be dead. So could K's if a set was flopped. Or, both could be alive (you're up against Q's, J's). In this situation, where I am unsure, I simply discount half the overcard outs. So, you have 12 (at best) and make my decision from there.

[Degen]

overcards are likely not good, unless he hits runners. He's drawing to a flush, a running straight or running two pair or set (which may not be good if they get their).

You have to put one of these guys on a set or two pair.


Degen