Sirius Satellite Raido (SIRI)

[RollaJ]

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. slipped more than 10 percent in Wednesday trading after a notable 2+2 author downgraded the stock and told investors to take profits following a three-month run-up.

Author Ray Zee cut Sirius to "Neutral" from "Overweight, saying he believes the stock's price is "much closer" to reflecting its near-term growth opportunity.
He also noted that Sirius shares have more than doubled since Sept. 30, compared with a 3 percent increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. In recent activity, Sirius dropped 7 percent, or 47 cents, to $6.24, with more than twice the average shares changing hands on the Nasdaq.
The decline comes a day after Sirius surged to its highest price this year as the company renewed expectations of reaching 1 million subscribers by year-end.
Sirius on Tuesday said it passed 800,000 subscribers earlier this week and remains on track to hit a million users through December. Shares climbed 12.3 percent to close at $6.71 -- nearly three times a September low of $2.27.
But Zee said profit-taking is a "prudent" strategy since Sirius' stock is susceptible to "minor hiccups." He said while Sirius now has to add 80 percent more subscribers per day in order to reach its goal of 1 million -- a likely growth during the holiday season -- that acceleration limits the room to beat expectations, which could pressure shares.
The author, however, said rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. -- which has about three times as many subscribers as Sirius -- presents less risk and potential for better reward.
"We continue to see substantial opportunity in the satellite radio sector, but now believe the better risk/reward is at XM, which has more subs, and we believe a faster turn to free cash flow profits and a one-year technology lead," he wrote in a research note to investors.
Shares of XM added 9 cents to trade at $36.75 on half its normal volume in recent activity on the Nasdaq, edging on a 52-week high of $37, its highest price in four years.
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[siriusradio]

5 million is not a stretch... howard stern doesn start until Jan 2006 and he is expected to bring 3-4 million. Add the "other" people to that and any estimate less then 5 mil would be a stretch.

[lowroller]

I, too, am skeptical. However, I remember the days when I defiantly declared "It's only coffee" about Starbucks and "It's only books" about Amazon....and now "It's only a search engine" about Google.

Can anybody draw a relative comparison to SIRI's current valuation and the valuations of some of the high profile tech companies of the late 90's?

[Lexington]

This article was posted today on the fool.com, check it out.

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mf...?ref=foolwatch

[Lawrence Ng]

It is still worth it to buy Sirius right now or should I wait?

Lawrence

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
I, too, am skeptical. However, I remember the days when I defiantly declared "It's only coffee" about Starbucks and "It's only books" about Amazon....and now "It's only a search engine" about Google.

Can anybody draw a relative comparison to SIRI's current valuation and the valuations of some of the high profile tech companies of the late 90's?


[/ QUOTE ]

I have often bought stocks and went really with gut feeling as my final decision and basically how confident I was about it. Some have worked out nicely (like Ballard, and a small company named Microsoft) and some not so nicely (like a company that designed some glow in the dark stick that would last over 24 hours).

I am not looking for the next big thing per say, but I do believe in taking good chances and opportunities and often, even being quite risky, I am comfortable enough to invest in them.

I love Google, simply because from an end user perspective this is by the far the best, friendliest, and effective search engine available. So I think it's a sure buy.

Lawrence

[AceHigh]

cposiasca1,

I agree that satellite radio is here to stay. Do you think both XM and sirius will thrive or do you think one will dominate? Until the Stern announcement my guess would have been that XM will eventually dominate the market.

[greg nice]

now is the time to short siri

[lowroller]

Does anyone know of the companies that are manufacturing the recievers for SIRIUS (not necessarily the brand on the reciever)?

Perhaps this is another way to play the stock?

[RollaJ]

There are many many manufacturers

Check em out