Situation I think I get wrong every time

[William]

LOL, considering that you normally have like 30 seconds to act, I believe you would both have your hands folded; Clearly the weakest move [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Better to move in. LOL

PS.But very entertaining [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[SossMan]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] LOL

I know, isn't it funny that we spend all day calculating the EV of the call that was made on the assumption that the reverse implied pot odds clearly required a 2.5x times pot sized bet becasue of this opponent has seen 18.93% of the flops and his stack size is 1/3 mine so he is clearly pot committed.
And then we end up saying, "Wait, it's WPT night...I call."
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[jw2k]

[ QUOTE ]
So let's switch shoes for a minute and put me in the BB's situation, assuming I'm drawing to a flush...

[/ QUOTE ]
Why check to the preflop raiser with a flush draw here? The only reason I could see is if you thought that the preflop raiser was playing very tight, and would only be in there with a premium pair that he/she wasn't going to let go of.

If I smooth called in the BB here and flopped a flush draw on this board, it's going to be a big one. Depending on where the raiser opened from, we're looking at Ah Kh (against early position) down through Ah Th, Kh Qh (against late position)... (some of these will be allin already some fraction of the time).

Such a hand on this board is (IMO) a powerful semibluffing hand. I would have between 7 and 15 outs if called, plus the added ability to represent a J forcing many hands to fold. What kind of hands will call a bet here? JJ, 44 and Jx, obviously. AA and KK most of the time. QQ likely. But I don't see many other hands making that call... and depending on the specific opponent and his opening position, he could have "alot" of hands which can't call here.

Or am I so far off here that I should cash out while I still can and put my money into the stock market?

[CrisBrown]

Hi jw2k,

In switching hats to decide what I'd want as the BB, I'm picking up with the situation he faces right here, right now. I don't get to take back his check; he already did it. So, assuming he has a flush draw, and that he checks to me, what how much of a bet would he be correct to call?

That was the only point of the exercise.

Cris

[JustPlayingSmart]

Guy,

I think your post is exactly right here. Sklansky even has an almost identical situation in TOP on pages 82-83. In situation #1, the player holds JJ with a rainbow flop of TT3. He says that betting here would be best because of the potential overcards that could fall. In situation #2, the player holds AA with the same flop. He says that checking could be best because there are not many turn cards that could scare you, and it disguises your hand. So, I think that there is a very big difference between QQ and AA in this situation if no flush draw is out. Assuming you plan to lose your stack to Jx...giving someone a free card on a 22-1 shot does not seem like a bad idea, especially if they don't have a pocket pair, but instead have a hand like AK and a K hits on the turn.

[sdplayerb]

QQ I pushin. If he has AJ, KJ etc, he got lucky and shouldn't have been in the pot especially when the raiser only has 5x the raise.
I'm not letting him hit an A or K.

If I have AA, I check for:
1. If he has a J i am done anyway
2. if he has a k or q and one hits i can break him.

I'm not betting small to let him try to suck out with QQ. Even if he isn't getting the odds to call a small bet, chips won are worth less than chips lost. That extra 400 or so meeans little compared to that 800-950 in the pot plus the 1200 you have.

[jw2k]

Hi Cris,

Thanks. The reason I ask is that, if I were sitting at the table, I would read the BB's check on this board to mean he doesn't have a flush draw. Assuming that I can ingore the voice in my head which is saying "me have overpair, me bet allin...", I'd then need to put the BB on a range of hands which he might smooth call with in the BB, then check to me on the flop, which likely excludes flush draws. Since we're dealing with a generic opponent here, I'll add to my read on that he doesn't have AA, KK or AK. That leaves smaller pairs, JJ (1 way), TT-77 (24 ways), AQ (16 w/ flush draw), AJ (8) if he's playing reasonably tight against what I assume is my EP raise... If I add KJ (8) to his hands, I would also add KQ (8 w/ flush draw) to his possible holdings. If I've done this right, I'm somewhere between a 2.8:1 and 4.4:1 favorite to be ahead at this point. This drops slightly if my read of his check is correct,... and likely improves the later position I open from, since he'll be more apt to call preflop with hands I beat and reraise preflop with hands I don't.

Elsewhere in this thread I said that if I held AA or KK and there were no flush draw out there, then I would check behind to induce a bluff on the turn from a weaker hand. After having a couple days to think about this, and sitting down this morning to "do the math", I now think its a better play to check behind with QQ as well, and call any turn bet, even if a flush card hits. I think I would be inclinded to muck if an A fell and he pushed in, though I might have to flip a coin to make that decision.

I guess one obvious criticism here is whether this so called "generic" player would smooth call preflop with something like TT-77, then check on a "favorable" flop of JhJc4h.

Thoughts?

jw

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually want 4:1 to chase a naked four-draw at the flop, with the extra overlay to cover the times I'll miss at the turn and have to fold. Here I'd want a lot better than that, because I can't count the A, K, Q, or 10 of my suit as secure outs. AJ, KJ, QJ, and JT are all common raising hands, so even if I hit my flush on an A, K, Q, or 10, I have to tread lightly in case he's filled up. Depending on my exact two cards, I have only 5 or 6 secure outs, not the usual 9 for a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the BB is on a flush draw, he almost certainly already has two of these (A K Q T) in his hand, so he can count on almost all of his flush cards to be good.

[ QUOTE ]
So ... returning to my QQ holding, I only need to bet 400 at this flop. That would give the BB just over 6:1 on his call (400 to win 2200), not enough to justify chasing what may be a dead flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

First off, like other posters have said, this kind of calculation is far from likely to be happening at the table in 15 seconds. But, playing along... do you really bet 400 even though you know with QQ you actually only hold 1 flush card that fills you up?

And if we're assuming he has a flush draw, do you really want to give a cheap draw to someone who has K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls, I have to worry about his holding Jx or 44, and I'm shutting down

[/ QUOTE ]

You're advocating putting almost half your stack in, flopping an overpair and letting your opponent walk away with this pot without showing you his cards?

I'm sorry, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. What would I do? Push it.