Not the beat, but the chatter....

[scrub]

Supersystem is about a very different game than the one most posters on this forum play in. That's why it should come with a warning label, just like the "loose games" section in HEPFAP.

Brunson was writing about big-bet games with MUCH deeper stacks than most online games, and was writing at a time when most "strong" players were extremely weak-tight. In games like this (1) the implied odds for hands like suited connectors are much higher and (2) the deeper stacks make strong semibluffs much more powerful and also allow for meaningful betting (and bluffing) on all streets.

I feel like the most common mistakes on this forum come from players who fail to understand the various implications of stack size, both in relation to the blinds and to the sizes of other stacks at the table. About once a month, I post a link to GoG's post on stack sizes, which I think is a great starting place for players looking to sharpen their understanding of these concepts. There's plenty of great stuff in the archives--just go digging!

scrub

[CrisBrown]

Hi turnip,

[ QUOTE ]
your opponent has $240, or 60 big blinds. this is deep money? are you going to flop 2 pair or better and have it hold up 1 in 24 times? calling a $10 raise to win $240 seems like a bad play to me. sorry to be blunt. in general, I think you will go broke calling raises from short stacks with hands like 87o. [Emphasis added.]

[/ QUOTE ]

The bold text is, I think the key issue. On an 8-7-2 flop, QQ is a 3:1 dog to 87. As I recall -- and I don't have them immediately at hand -- the odds that a connector will flop two pair or better are about 1:7. So the odds to flop a hand that held up are about 1:21, and you're right that with only 24xBB in his stack, that's a very narrow margin.

Cris

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
you're right that with only 24xBB in his stack, that's a very narrow margin.

[/ QUOTE ]

to your credit, I miscalculated the odds of flopping two pair or better, you are right that it is 7:1 (6.95:1 to be exact). still, I think the play is -EV unless he will pay you off with an overpair every single time, and not many players will.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
you're right that with only 24xBB in his stack, that's a very narrow margin.

[/ QUOTE ]

to your credit, I miscalculated the odds of flopping two pair or better, you are right that it is 7:1 (6.95:1 to be exact). still, I think the play is -EV unless he will pay you off with an overpair every single time, and not many players will.

also, the odds of you flopping top two are less than 7:1, and you are in a much better situation if you hit top two, for obvious reasons. bottom two pair just isn't that great a hand, certainly not one I want all my chips in with.

--turnipmonster

[Paul2432]

the odds that a connector will flop two pair or better are about 1:7

This figure is incorrect. An unsuited connector (54-JT) will flop two pair or better (using both cards) only once every 21 times.

Your figure is the frequency of flopping two-pair or better or an OESD (using both cards).

I can show the calcs if necessary.

Paul

[scrub]

I'd like to see them--I've never actually sat down and done the OESD numbers.

scrub

[Paul2432]

I'll assume you are familiar with combinations.

Given that you hold 8c 7d that leaves 50 cards, so the number of flops possible is:

Flops possible = C(50,3) = 19,600

Two pair flops will contain an 8, a 7 and an unrelated card. (I am not including boards like QQ7 as two pair flops) Each of the three remaining sevens can appear on the flop with each of three remaining eights for nine possible pairings. Each of this these pairings can have any of 44 different side cards. Hence:

Two-pair flops = 3 x 3 x 44 = 396

Three of a kind flops will contain either two sevens or two eights. The three remaining sevens (or eights) can come in C(3,2) = 3 combinations. These can be combined with 44 side cards. Hence

Trips Flops = 2 x C(3,2) x 44 = 264

A full house will flop when any three of the six outstanding sevens or eights flop excluding the flops of 777 or 888. Hence:

Full house = C(6,3) - 2 = 18

Quads flops can only comes two ways, either 777 or 888.

Quads = 2

Holding an eight and seven four different straights are possible, eight high through jack high. Each of the three board cards can be any of four suits. Hence:

Straights = 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 = 256

Finally three different OESDs are possible 5678, 6789, and 789T. Each of these can combine with 40 side cards (52 cards - the four OESD cards - 8 cards that make a straight). Hence:

OESD = 3 x 4 x 4 x 40 = 1920

Summarizing:

Two-pair or better = 936 hand / 19600 hands ~ 1/21

Two-pair or better + OESD = 2856 / 19600 ~ 1/7

Please let me know if you see any mistakes.

Paul

[scrub]

Looks good to me. Clearly presented too.

Thanks from a very lazy scrub... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

scrub

[Paul2432]

One quick clarification. My OESD numbers do not include the six pair plus OESD flops 567, 568, 679, 689, 89T, and 79T. These flops can come four ways for each non pairing card and three ways for the pairing card.

OESD + pair = 6 x 4 x 4 x 3 = 288 flops.

Paul

[C M Burns]

Some comments:

A. Thanks for the calcs, those are quite helpful. I think in general one would consider an oesd as improvment if you play this sort of hand, but it it is helpful to know the odds of getting a complete hand, and that i'd probably want 30-1 on my call if this is what I was going for.

B. I think an important consideration in playing hands in NL is the chance you have of taking down the pot w/ a bluff or SB. I only play the 1/2 games but especially after a pf raise the chances can be quite good.

C. My 2c about NL and conecting cards. I do agree that in this situatiion first in with a raise would be quite good, and preferable to a call. However, i think this is a situation that separates suited from unsuited conectors. With suited conectors calling a presumed big pair or posibly other big cards, does give you two good chanced to win, the strt and flush (and tp), and here your flush is more likley to be good. However, if you raised and got called on the flop, with a flush draw, it is very likley your flush is dead. So raising reduces the value of being suited.
This being said if you raise with this type of hand the suitedness doesn't matter as much (imho). Now you have a good chance of taking down the pot pf or on the flop, and if you get called on the flop it is easier to get away from with nothing. (thats why raising with something like Aj is bad b/c IF you get called you are prob in trouble (w/ say a pair of J's on the flop). So if you don't want to get called anyway you may as well have nothing (Ciafone and Rueben discuss something like this)

D. Finally, Anyone who berates a "fish" on their bad play is much more of an idiot than the fish. Of course you want them to continue playing bad and feel comfortable in the game. And also fish are not alway idots. (as discussed in psych of poker) some people do not play for profit but just to have fun, just like playing craps or rulette. They just like to gamble and play, and nothing is more "fun" than winning with a garbage hand.