who's right? - Page 3

bernie · #21 05-07-2003, 01:48 AM

actually, many authors tend to fear flush over flush much more than normal. IMO i think by not fearing it, for reasons i gave, is a minority opinion in many circles. the 'regular' rule also doesnt mean you wont lose like this, it's just not as often as some think. an easy test? when you see it happen, look at the losers hand and ask yourself if youd have played his hand in that position. usually the answer is no. hence, you wouldnt have been beat in this manner.

however, i do agree that with the players involved, more account shouldve been taken for the possibility. not just the information from the jammers, but the guys calling in between. THOSE guys usually have at least a flush draw that may beat yours. especially with chips flying. on top of that, with that many callers, you dont have 9 outs. some of your outs are likely gone.

i was also pointing out the opponents possible perspective. taking into account how he may have misread the situation a little.

lastly, some of the biggest pots ive seen were won by baby flushes...

just some idee'ers

b

SoBeDude · #22 05-07-2003, 10:15 AM

Calculation - He is getting 3:1 on each additional bet he puts into the pot, which means it is a breakeven proposition if he wins 25% of the time. He will make a flush around 33% of the time. This means if his flush is good more than 75.8% (25/33) of the time his raise has value, so if he is beaten 24.2% of the time or more his raise is incorrect.

I would guess that the number of times 2 players are drawing to the same flush is less than 24% of the time, or less than 1 time in 4.

Especially when many (most?) players will muck two small suiteds from most positions on the board.

-Scott

bernie · #23 05-07-2003, 10:27 AM

of course, one can also factor in that on a full table, it's rare you will ever really have all 9 outs to your flush draw. so the odds, in general, are actually worse than what we hope for.

but that doesnt change how i play it.

b

tewall · #24 05-07-2003, 11:47 AM

I would raise some of the time and some of the time not. Whether the raise for value in that situation is on or not is close, so why not vary your play?

Whether the odds are there to raise for value is not the only consideration. If a raise on the flop can cause an opponent to misread your hand, that's a small price to play for that benefit, especially here where the decision is close.