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#22
04-15-2005, 01:45 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
[ QUOTE ]
edit: by "know mr. pink" I don't mean they've been out for coffee several times, I just mean the TAG is aware that mp is a good player. [/ QUOTE ] IMO this makes it LESS likely that he mucks AA or KK. He knows Mr. P is a sneaky bastard, thus he knows Mr. P might try some sneaky BS. Villain says "If you've got the Q, good for you, but I'm looking your ass up." 
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#23
04-15-2005, 01:50 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
[ QUOTE ] OK, but if he just calls and a brick hits, what do you do? You've committed 2 bb by c/ring. Do you bet the river? Do you check/call? Now we are at 3-BB's. I think your hand has SD value. I'd get there cheaply. [/ QUOTE ] i think i'd be inclined to bet the river after going all out on the turn, which is another reason i'm reconsidering this line. [ QUOTE ] FWIW, I really think that you overestimate the amount of time that he folds AA here. [/ QUOTE ] how often does he have to muck it for this play to be +EV ? i suck at EV calculations so would anyone like to help out?
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#24
04-15-2005, 01:50 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I really think that you overestimate the amount of time that he folds AA here. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. I don't mind him drawing to 3 outs if he has AK and I'd rather he keep betting JJ and TT also.
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#25
04-15-2005, 01:52 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
[ QUOTE ]
how often does he have to muck it for this play to be +EV ? i suck at EV calculations so would anyone like to help out? [/ QUOTE ] I do too, but I'd bet you $1 that it is negative.
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#26
04-15-2005, 01:52 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] He might fold TT or JJ to your check-raise [/ QUOTE ] Isn't this a bad thing? [/ QUOTE ] Yes it is, which is why I said I like just calling instead.
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#28
04-15-2005, 02:01 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I do too, but I'd bet you $1 that it is negative. [/ QUOTE ] you're on. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a welcher. When you c/r there is basicaly 12BB in there. When he calls, I think we can assume your goose is cooked. Let's also assume that you fold to a river bet or turn 3-bet. When he calls, you lose 2 BB. When he folds, you win 12BB. Looks to me like he would need to fold 1 out of every 7 to have this make you money. I'm sure I have oversimplified this a bit, but I think you lose.
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#29
04-15-2005, 11:16 AM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
You also have to account for all of the times when he has JJ or TT, and he folds to your check raise when you don't want him to. You only want him to fold AA here, everything else you want t o see a call.
If he always had AA, this play might be arguable, but as it is, I think its losing money. (Unless he folds AA every time he has it here).
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#30
04-15-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: KK against a good multitabling TAG
I don't like it. You're crushed here or have him drawing to 2 or 3 outs. (Well, I suppose it's possible he has exactly AKd) Why bother with the raise, then?
On the river, he may call you with an unimproved AK, extra bet for you -- he's only got to do that 1 in 20 times to make this terrible. He's going to fold JJ here, which would pay you off on the river as well. He's not going to fold KK or AA here a great majority of the time, so I don't think there's value from that. In short - he'll fold the hands he should, even those that would pay off to see a showdown, and he'll stay in with the hands that beat you. Seems like a no-win to me. -d
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