I decide to bet Q-high

[Nick Royale]

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like i said above, you are quite happy with 2 callers. the problem is that you will end up with 1 caller too frequently IMO.

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Then assume you'll end up with 1 caller every time except for the times you'll buy the pot. Turn EV for 1 caller:
1*0.3 - 1*0.7= -0.4

Then they all would need to fold 16% of the time. That's not a large number and still the 2nd worst scenario.

Assume you'll get raised and end up HU every time except for when your semi-bluff succeeds:
2*0.3 - 2*0.7= -0.8

You still only need to win right away 1/3 of the time and that's the very worst case scenario and won't happen too often.

My point is betting should be pretty easy.

[DMBFan23]

betting rocks.

1) we're going to call a bet anyway.
2) GIVEN 1), betting is better than check calling because


a) we might pick up the pot now.
2) we might pick up the pot on the river
Third) we'd like any 9, any better Q, or TJ to fold. that's not a ton of hands, and in this small pot it's not costing us a lot of EV (if any), but like I said, we're calling a bet anyway.

[axioma]

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1) we're going to call a bet anyway.

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are you calling when the CO bets and the SB folds?

[GetThere1Time]

I agree with DMB partially. I don't see what a donk would call with on the turn that they'd fold for one bet on the river but clearing up better Qs other 9s is good especially when you're calling a bet anyway. The way you describe these guys the only hand they're folding to a river bluff is A9, A6, or Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and even then you might get called. So, I still don't understand why anyone's saying to bet the river. Any enlightenment would be appreciated.

[DMBFan23]

yeah, with 13 outs to a sure winner plus the fact that a pair will often be good.

I estimate the chance of a checkraise by the MP's here at about 0%

[mtdoak]

Around 25%, depending on the table. I usually try and avoid it if theres 2 or more calling station at the table. Its a semibluff. I would prefer to do this from late position, but he has 13 outs to a very strong hand (and an overcard)

[uw_madtown]

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I almost always make this bet. But it always seems like somebody picked up a set of 5s and pops me so I have to pay an extra bet to see the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit the river.

Nonetheless, I continue to believe it's the right thing to do.

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IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.

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I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option.

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I think you almost have to bet the river if you get just one caller on the turn.

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Yes and yes.

Good turn bet, I like it a lot and would DEFINITELY be betting here myself. It seems like I usually end up hating myself, but I think it's the right move. And if only one calls, you absolutely have to bet a rag river.