AKo UTG 10handed

[Oluwafemi]

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If you were the button, what would it take to get you to bet once the flop is checked to you?

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i don't remember the button being discussed in this hand.

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My bad, if you were CO (or the player with position), what would it take to get you to bet?

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1. 7 7, 9 9- A A
2. 8 9o-8 9s [*highly doubt CO is calling a 200 raise pf]
3. 10 x, 7 x [preferably A 10o-A 10s or *A 7o-A 7s ]

also, villian did'nt simply bet, he/she reraised all-in the rest of their chips after calling the raise preflop with position. that's one of the main reason i advocate checking this flop and folding to a bet. had Hero been in postion at the CO and reraised all-in after a 200 bet at the flop by villian, i would like the play much better. my goal is lose as many chips as possible with A K when it does'nt hit. at the level i play, i see opponents overvalue and overplay A K way too much.

*loose call*

[pergesu]

Okay let's just have a little fun with gap theory now.

Let's say you and I are playing this hand heads up. I know, from reading that post, that you will be way too conservative in your betting when I check it to you (you should actually be betting almost all the time). It makes sense that you'd be even more conservative with calling or raising a bet. So if I know that you will call/raise with an even smaller range of hands than the range you posted above, then isn't it profitable for me to bet an even greater percentage of the time? Then it's easy to play because if I get any action, I'm beat and dump it.

[Oluwafemi]

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Okay let's just have a little fun with gap theory now.

Let's say you and I are playing this hand heads up. I know, from reading that post, that you will be way too conservative in your betting when I check it to you (you should actually be betting almost all the time). It makes sense that you'd be even more conservative with calling or raising a bet. So if I know that you will call/raise with an even smaller range of hands than the range you posted above, then isn't it profitable for me to bet an even greater percentage of the time? Then it's easy to play because if I get any action, I'm beat and dump it.

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this hand HU, IMO, is irrelevant. this is a 10 handed game in which Hero raised 200 pf and was called by the CO with position. alot of the cards that could make you A Ko improve may have already been folded [i.e. dominated A x or K x hands]. the gap, as far as i'm concerned, is going to be smaller in a 10-handed game, and i think it's a very good chance that you're bleeding off chips by betting out after you missed, especially with that flop. if i'm the CO in this hand, it's a good chance betting out by you UTG will lose you money more often than you win in this spot.

[bones]

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this hand HU, IMO, is irrelevant

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It's heads up after the flop.

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alot of the cards that could make you A Ko improve may have already been folded [i.e. dominated A x or K x hands

[/ QUOTE ] You have no way of knowing how many aces, kings, 4s, or 6s have been folded. You can't factor that into your decision at all here, and to think so is mathematically foolish.

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i think it's a very good chance that you're bleeding off chips by betting out after you missed, especially with that flop. if i'm the CO in this hand, it's a good chance betting out by you UTG will lose you money more often than you win in this spot.

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Wait, what? You'll re-raise with a wide range of hands, but won't lead out with AK?

You sir, have an interesting philosophy.

[Oluwafemi]

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this hand HU, IMO, is irrelevant

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It's heads up after the flop.

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alot of the cards that could make you A Ko improve may have already been folded [i.e. dominated A x or K x hands

[/ QUOTE ] You have no way of knowing how many aces, kings, 4s, or 6s have been folded. You can't factor that into your decision at all here, and to think so is mathematically foolish.

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i think it's a very good chance that you're bleeding off chips by betting out after you missed, especially with that flop. if i'm the CO in this hand, it's a good chance betting out by you UTG will lose you money more often than you win in this spot.

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Wait, what? You'll re-raise with a wide range of hands, but won't lead out with AK?

You sir, have an interesting philosophy.

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when i responded to the hand being HU, i was talking about down to two players.

*[what do you mean 4s and 6s?]*

of course you don't know how many Aces and Kings have been folded but what you do know is that you have no pair and no draw on a missed flop after you already raised too much preflop with your holding. along with that, you have a villian who cold called your 200 pf raise with [?] now, what range of hands do you think CO villian is gonna cold call 200 pf with? 7 7- A A & A Ko- A Ks sounds good to me. now, what kinds of hands that CO villian cold called a raise with pf will look good on a T72 rainbow flop? if i was holding A Ko or A Ks, i would much rather reraise all-in with this hand having missed my flop than to bet out first. i don't know where you're getting the "reraise all-in with a wider range of hands, but won't lead out".

[bones]

[censored] [censored], man.

[BadMongo]

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now, what range of hands do you think CO villian is gonna cold call 200 pf with? 7 7- A A & A Ko- A Ks sounds good to me.

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Dude, have you played any low buy-in tournies lately? You are giving your opponents FAR too much credit.

[Oluwafemi]

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now, what range of hands do you think CO villian is gonna cold call 200 pf with? 7 7- A A & A Ko- A Ks sounds good to me.

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Dude, have you played any low buy-in tournies lately? You are giving your opponents FAR too much credit.

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OP never indicated the buy-in, unless you already know Alpha plays low.

even if villian has a looser/wider range, he does have the advantage of postion and all you have is Ace high on a missed flop. how good do you think your hand is? i'd rather have CO's spot in this hand, whatever the buy-in.

[BadMongo]

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OP never indicated the buy-in, unless you already know Alpha plays low.

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No, he never indicated the buy-in, but due to the nature of the question I assumed it was a lower buy-in. Correct me if I'm wrong here, Alpha.

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all you have is Ace high on a missed flop

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He might only have K-high, or maybe he has a small pair and will fold anyway.

Let's do some math, shall we?

The reason a continuation bet is +EV is because of the chance the villian will fold when you BOTH miss the flop. If hero bets half the pot like he did in this case, he only needs to get the villian to fold 1/3 of the time to break even. This doesn't include the times he gets called, then improves on the turn. So, the question is, how often will we be called on a flop of T72 rainbow? This of course depends on the villians PF calling range, which will be pretty wide at lower buy-ins where people don't understand the Gap concept. Let's assume for now that villian will call with the following:

55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQo+, KJs+, QJs

From my experience at the lower buy-ins, this is more than reasonable. Let's further assume that the villian will call/raise on the flop with AT, 77+ and fold the rest. Since there are 6 ways to make a PP and 16 ways to make a non-paired hand, and considering the cards in our hand and on the flop, I calculate that there are 124 possible combinations of cards the villian could hold at this point:

PPs(6x7 + 3x4) + Ax(12x2 + 9x2 + 3x2) + Kx(12x1 +3x2) + Qx(4x1) = 124

Of these combinations, only 48 of them will call/raise:

PPs(6x4 + 3x4) + Ax(12x1) = 48

So, only 48/124 = 38.7% of hands the villian could hold will call/raise hero's continuation bet. Put another way, he will fold 61.3% of the time when we only need him to fold 33% of the time. This is why NOT making a continuation bet with AK heads-up on a flop like T72 rainbow is a big mistake.

[Oluwafemi]

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OP never indicated the buy-in, unless you already know Alpha plays low.

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No, he never indicated the buy-in, but due to the nature of the question I assumed it was a lower buy-in. Correct me if I'm wrong here, Alpha.

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all you have is Ace high on a missed flop

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He might only have K-high, or maybe he has a small pair and will fold anyway.

Let's do some math, shall we?

The reason a continuation bet is +EV is because of the chance the villian will fold when you BOTH miss the flop. If hero bets half the pot like he did in this case, he only needs to get the villian to fold 1/3 of the time to break even. This doesn't include the times he gets called, then improves on the turn. So, the question is, how often will we be called on a flop of T72 rainbow? This of course depends on the villians PF calling range, which will be pretty wide at lower buy-ins where people don't understand the Gap concept. Let's assume for now that villian will call with the following:

55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQo+, KJs+, QJs

From my experience at the lower buy-ins, this is more than reasonable. Let's further assume that the villian will call/raise on the flop with AT, 77+ and fold the rest. Since there are 6 ways to make a PP and 16 ways to make a non-paired hand, and considering the cards in our hand and on the flop, I calculate that there are 124 possible combinations of cards the villian could hold at this point:

PPs(6x7 + 3x4) + Ax(12x2 + 9x2 + 3x2) + Kx(12x1 +3x2) + Qx(4x1) = 124

Of these combinations, only 48 of them will call/raise:

PPs(6x4 + 3x4) + Ax(12x1) = 48

So, only 48/124 = 38.7% of hands the villian could hold will call/raise hero's continuation bet. Put another way, he will fold 61.3% of the time when we only need him to fold 33% of the time. This is why NOT making a continuation bet with AK heads-up on a flop like T72 rainbow is a big mistake.

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i hardly think NOT making a continuation bet with A Ko on this flop is a big mistake. if you wanna argue NOT making this play over time, then fine, but something tells me this is one of the 38.7% of hands that will call/raise A K's continuation bet so i prefer checking.