Thin value raise on river

I think you made a GREAT river raise. All the info was there and you carpe deimed.


"Flop is AQ4r (none of my suit). The SB bets, BB calls,"


If we can presume that he would have raised with A-2, and I think we can, with two players behind him and a prime opportunity to narrow the field and/or gain info, then A-2 is gone from his range of possible hands.


"Turn in J, putting a two flush on board. SB bets, BB calls, I raise, and both call."


Surely he'd have reraised here if he had a set, A-4, A-Q, or A-J, and was going for the super-duper slowplay.


The only hand you need fear on the river is a wheel, IMO. Because you can safely fold to a reraise on the river, I think the river raise is top notch.


Tommy

Let's say that he DID have A-2, hitting top and bottom on the river, and had decided to just call along on every street. He doesn't have enough to reraise on the river, so your river raise is protected in that way. So it comes down to a straight up one-bet decision wieghing the likelihood of him having A-2 (slim, IMO) vs the likelihood of him having a hand he would payoff your river raise with (good, given that he bet out). I still like the raise.


Tommy

Tommy,


You stated (far more succinctly than I could have) my exact thinking on the hand. I wanted to post this because I thought it was an interesting hand reading excercise. I took a big risk, since I negated the possibility of an overcall and opened up the possibility of a 3-bet, but I think that the clues so strongly suggested that I was ahead (for all of the reasons you gave) that I thought a raise was correct or atleast close. Thanks for your compliment and encouragement.


-Dan


P.S. From reading some of your posts, I sense that river play is a very strong part of your game. You seem to make and save big bets in spots where few players could. So I really appreciate getting a compliment from you on a gutsy river decision I made.

So what hand are you giving the bb that he could bet on the river, after the action on the turn, that you can beat and he could call?


You say he will raise with A2 on the flop to narrow thw feild. Well he would be corret to, but not everybody does things correctly. He is not described as a good player. Many bad player will just call in these spot now bet the river when they make aces up. In fact I think that is his most likley holding.

By the way extermely surpised that he had a worse hand that he would bet river and call that wouldn't beat his hand.

"So what hand are you giving the bb that he could bet on the river, after the action on the turn, that you can beat ..."


Two pair, or who the heck knows, maybe even one pair. I mean, we have no profiling on the player at all to go on. If he had A-x and did NOT raise the flop, as we both think a good player would, then that means he can't be both a good player and hold that hand. And in general it takes a good player to bet the river and fold to a raise, so we needn't fear him betting the river with one pair or two pair and then folding. I'm not explaining this well and I'm in a hurry, but the good-player bad-player potentials line up with the potential holdings in a way that suggests to me that this guy rates to not be a good player, meaning it's even more likely he made a lesser two pair on the river, and that he would bet out and call a raise with that hand.


Tommy

I agree that he sounds like a bad player and will payoff if he has almost any pair. But if he is bluffing you might get no more bets. So you either gain one bet or none. Where if you just call there is a really good chance of an overcall. And you get the same one bet without risking losing more bets by raising.

I agree with pokerguy.

If you call you stand to get the overcall from the original raiser without risk of a reraise from the river bettor.

IMO - It's just this type of hand on the dick riverplay that not only makes little sense but seems to be made for purely ego reasons. It feels good to raise with a marginal holdings on 2 consecutive streets in a marginal situation and be right. It may not be the right play but sure makes you feel like the big man you undoubtedly are.. However what happens in the many other cases when the 3rd player in the pot folds and the river bettor re raises and you call 'just in case' only to see A2 or any other hand that beats you. Even better and more likely is that you raise and the 3rd player folds and the original bettor calls and shows you the best hand.

It sounds great on this forum to say how this kind of daring play is excellent etc and quite frankly I hope everyone keeps playing in this manner and raises me on the river with QJ - yum yum. It's just about the only thing that keeps hold em games great after all these years - otherwise sane and very intelligent people think that making plays like this is the way to win and something to aspire to when IMO pokers not really about that. Feels good to play that way though and we all want pleasure from poker, right?