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#2
11-26-2005, 11:38 AM
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Re: aces all the way
I don't think this is an easy bet for these reasons. Villain could easily bet 1 pair, trips or better and check 2pair!!
Call only with 2 pair And only raise with trips or better. (notice this is similar to the heads up on the river in TOP) This may sound like a good creative player, but there do seem to be some donks who stumble into this strategy. I think the thought process on the river goes like this -checked to with pair of queens- guess he really was bluffing at me and if he wasn't he'll still probably fold. -checked to with 2 pair- I don't want to feel like a fool when he check raises me with aces up. -bet at with 2 pair- he probably hit his aces up, i'll call -bet at with trips or better- I've got him, raise. If this is your player than checking your aces everytime is the profitable play since you lose a bet when you bet unimproved aces into his unimproved queens Vs. the always bet river and fold to a raise method. Further, what happens if 1 in 10 times (or more) he raises with his unimproved queens, not so much as a though out strategy, but just 1 in 10 times gets the 'gut feeling' he can bet you off or just feels like he's the man from time to time? The bet and fold to a raise strategy starts to lose some more money. So I guess my point is, even against weak players in a party or pacific 2/4 game, you still need a good read on players to know how best to play marginal hands on the river, or more likely, how to get 4 people to call a capped river when you've made your aces full. 
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#3
11-26-2005, 11:51 AM
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Re: aces all the way
I don’t want hijack your thread, but this fits in nicely I think.
My opponent is somewhat loose (but not terrible) and a bit passive but liable to re-raise on 3rd or at least 5th with a premium pair. I was planning to fold to a raise - haven’t ever seen him do anything fancy. 7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter) 3rd Street - (0.75 SB) Seat 1: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds 4th Street - (3.25 SB) Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets 5th Street - (2.63 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets 6th Street - (4.63 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets River - (6.63 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___calls Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets Total pot: (8.63 BB) Results: Main Pot: $33 | Rake: $1.50
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#5
11-26-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: aces all the way
Roland,
This is an interesting hand, and it seems like it worked out for you. I'd like to see how others respond, because I think this is a -EV play. Hands that have you beat will call or raise, hands that don't have you beat will fold most of the time here (your board is extremely scary and the pot isn't that big). I prefer check/call here. I think you have a much better shot of a busted straight or low pair making a bluff at you than calling your river bet. - Mac
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#6
11-28-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: aces all the way
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see how others respond, [/ QUOTE ] Yeah me too… but whatever, here are my thoughts: [ QUOTE ] Hands that have you beat will call or raise, [/ QUOTE ] He certainly isn’t folding any better hands; that wasn’t the point of the bet, anyway - it’s a value bet, not a bluff. I doubt he even raises me with, say, aces up in this spot; he might even just call with a straight or trips. It really doesn’t matter though because I would have folded to a raise. [ QUOTE ] hands that don't have you beat will fold most of the time here [/ QUOTE ] This is where you are wrong. There is no way this guy is folding 9s on the river. And although he obviously should fold against me, he probably shouldn’t against most other (looser) players. He’s actually doing the right thing, just at the wrong time. [ QUOTE ] I think you have a much better shot of a busted straight or low pair making a bluff at you [/ QUOTE ] I don’t think he would ever try to bluff me. The snap-off-a-bluff-approach can be good against the right type of opponent though. To conclude - betting can’t possibly be -EV, unless my read is somehow totally off and he will bluff-raise me. And it’s not even close, actually. You should just give it a try and bet in some similar spots. It’s a lot of fun - I enjoy it way more than making “safe” bets with made hands. That’s just me, though. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#7
11-28-2005, 09:18 PM
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Re: aces all the way
this is a good bet here bnecause once he calls your raise i dont think he has a draw. but the difference in this hand and the posters is that he has mostly high cards so many of the hands he might call a raise with will have picked up a draw.
Pat
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#8
11-28-2005, 09:16 PM
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Re: aces all the way
the best general rule i have seen for river play is this: if you only have what you have been representing then bet. they will call just to be sure. this is the Ciaffone rule. here tho you may be tempted to bet but i probably check here. why? because given the hand he may have a busted draw in which case he isnt calling if he missed but might bluff if you check. so you just have to figure out if he might have a pair that is calling.
Pat
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