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#11
09-27-2005, 03:33 PM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
Thanks for great post. I understand your point, but I have a few questions. Anyone can help me so I can understand this post better? The question below might be elementry to some of you guys, but these are the question I had for long time, but never put effort to find out answer. Thanks
[ QUOTE ] look for 30%/7+BB games, [/ QUOTE ] what do you mean by "7+BB". Do you mean the size of average pot? So if you are looking for 2/4 game, you mean the game with 30%VP and average pot size $28 or larger? [ QUOTE ] He is raising 1.5% of the time. Multiply .015 times 1326, and you get 19-20 hands. AA is six hands, KK is six hands AK suited is four hands, QQ is six hands. Maybe he loosens up, and tries to steal on the button occasionally with AKo, or AQ. [/ QUOTE ] I understand what you are trying to say, but here is my question. You are trying to estimate range of hands he is raising with based on PFR%. I have problem doing this on table- its mostly educated guess. I don't know how to do this mathmatically like you just presented. What is this magic number "1326"? Also, "AA is six hand"??? I know you are talking about possible combination to give any player AA, but this whole thing is new to me? Anyone can recommend me with good thread on this topic?- how to estimate range of hands based on PFR and maybe VP. Right now, I just assume anyone with VP45 or PFR13+ as the player "who plays anything" 
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#12
09-27-2005, 04:22 PM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
[ QUOTE ]
This has got to be the best "How to Deal with a Rock" post I've ever read. I recommend this be added to the next issue of SS Digest. [/ QUOTE ]
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#13
09-27-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
Nice to see you around more Bob. Good post.
There are a handful of these players at 2/4 as well. I like getting to their right almost as much as I like getting to a maniacs left. The whole key with the blind game is to make sure you don't get out of line postflop. You can literally rob them blind, but if you get out of line on the big streets with them, there goes a large # of your steals.
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#14
09-28-2005, 03:15 AM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
[ QUOTE ]
what do you mean by "7+BB". Do you mean the size of average pot? So if you are looking for 2/4 game, you mean the game with 30%VP and average pot size $28 or larger? [/ QUOTE ] Yep, you got it right. [ QUOTE ] I have problem doing this on table- its mostly educated guess. I don't know how to do this mathmatically like you just presented. What is this magic number "1326"? Also, "AA is six hand"??? I know you are talking about possible combination to give any player AA, but this whole thing is new to me? Anyone can recommend me with good thread on this topic?- how to estimate range of hands based on PFR and maybe VP. Right now, I just assume anyone with VP45 or PFR13+ as the player "who plays anything" [/ QUOTE ] 1326 is the number of possible starting hands. 52 X 51 / 2. 6 is the number of combinations that are AA, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Its worthwhile practice to spend several hours figuring out percentages like this. What percent of hands are represented by Sklansky's group 1, Group 2, etc. or if a person raises, 3%, 6%, or 10 % of all hands, what kinds of hands would that probably include. After you do the hard work, then you suddenly become a better hand reader, because you have a better idea of what each of the ranges represent, and when you look at a players statistics, you have an educated guess at what those statistics mean in a practical sense. [ QUOTE ] Right now, I just assume anyone with VP45 or PFR13+ as the player "who plays anything" [/ QUOTE ] Well, not anything, but a lot of stuff.
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#15
09-28-2005, 03:47 AM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
Great post...reminded me of the most important thing I learned from John Vorhaus' books
"Don't challenge good players. Prey on the weak players; that is what they are there for." I wrote it on a post-it note and keep it stickied to my monitor.
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#16
09-28-2005, 03:49 AM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
[ QUOTE ]
1326 is the number of possible starting hands. 52 X 51 / 2. 6 is the number of combinations that are AA, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] So any pair has 6 different combination to make that pair. Any suited cards has 4 combination and any off-suit has 12??? 3 differnt combination to make AKo w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] are combination with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]- can't use K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] since that make the hand to AKs. 3 combination for A of each suite times 4 suites, so 12. Am I correct? I think I am, but I haven't done this since 4th or 5th grade in Japan (I am from Japan). [ QUOTE ] Its worthwhile practice to spend several hours figuring out percentages like this. What percent of hands are represented by Sklansky's group 1, Group 2, etc. or if a person raises, 3%, 6%, or 10 % of all hands, what kinds of hands would that probably include. [/ QUOTE ] Great advice! I'll do that tomorrow. I can use same method and get sense of what limpers has based on their VP. Same thing, I just have to figure out up to... maybe 40%? Anyway, I think your right that doing this is worth effort. Also, can you suggest any thread or web site on this topic? Thanks again for your advice.
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#17
09-28-2005, 03:54 AM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
I personally made my own excel spreadsheet for all 169 starting hand combinations and calculated their expected frequencies. I then added up the different starting hand recommendations--SSHE tight, SSHE loose, WLLH, and HPFAP groups. IT was a very worthwile expreience. I suggest you do it yourself and play around with it.
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#19
09-28-2005, 05:31 AM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
PFR% according to SSHE tight table recommendations
4.98% from early 8.14% from middle 10.26% from late
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#20
10-02-2005, 10:18 AM
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Re: You don\'t have to wrestle with the b\'ar.(long)
Great post Bob. Another stat that tells your story is the following. The conventional wisdom states that only 20% win while 80% lose. My PTracker stats nullify this cliche - at 2/4,3/6,5/10, and 10/20. The breakdown is more like 45%/55% over a year and a half's collection of hands.
The players are better than they're purported to be. My adaptations: (1) Choose games with much higher than expected average pot sizes. That's where the Live Ones live; (2) play B&M more frequently because the games are much looser. Thanks again for your excellent post.
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