I need a lock for my suicide pool this week help!!

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Sportsbooks don't make a habit of offering easy wins. When you say you're betting a huge amount of your bankroll on one game, it is your responsibility to tell us why you're so sure if you want people to respect that decision. Because in general, betting 15-20% on a single game is a horrible idea.
And this is especially true considering that you're betting massively on Colts-Browns and Colts-Niners, so it seems like you're just planning to lay tons of points since you think the Colts are much better. In general, that is not a winning strategy.

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Ok ill give it a go. Last year i won big because i rode the colts and a eagles some on them slaughtering teams. But this was not in my decision at all this is my breakdown of the game. The jags, ravens and patriots are the 3 teams with any success at all in slowing down the colts, thus the colts averaging 19 points against them including playoffs and 39 points against any other team in the league. So I think people got swayed by the first 2 games of the colts.
I agree that there are very FEW bets that are great to bet even over the course of an entire season, but especially with the colts defense playing how it is, and the browns not having the personal to slow down the colts at all especially on the road, I just can't see a way of this being anything less of a blowout.
The way they lay the lines to have 50/50 on each side of course there are very few good lines to bet, but in the nfl theres always enough people on the other side for the spread not to get out line. I still would like to hear more replies about this, preferably about game specific things though.

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but especially with the colts defense playing how it is

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Jax averaged 16 ppg last season w/ mostly the same personnel as this season and the Ravens mustered 10 against a very weak Tennessee D. I'm not convinced the Colts D is stellar.

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I'm not talking about specific spreads -- I mean betting significant portions of your bankroll on any one game. Betting 20% of your roll on a game seems like an easy way to go bust.

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I agree with this, but I also think that if you see that big game you should bet big, this comes maybe 3 times a year max, so i dont think its that bad as long as its an amount you can survive ok if it doesnt come through.
As for the colts D syg i agree, but the browns arent exactly an offensive explosion.

[beeyjay]

colts...am i missing something

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I'm not talking about specific spreads -- I mean betting significant portions of your bankroll on any one game. Betting 20% of your roll on a game seems like an easy way to go bust.

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I agree with this, but I also think that if you see that big game you should bet big, this comes maybe 3 times a year max, so i dont think its that bad as long as its an amount you can survive ok if it doesnt come through.
As for the colts D syg i agree, but the browns arent exactly an offensive explosion.

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The Colts (ed: Browns) O is a much improved squad this year -- McCown has turned into the efficient and underrated Dilfer, they now have 3 moderately healthy backs worthy of PT plus an improved line, and a coach who the players won't tune out by week 5. They likely won't win this one but it's hard to see this team as a total pushover. Any game on the road is difficult but heck they're flying only 300 miles to the game. Be careful, that's all I'm saying.

[unlucky513]

take the bengals this week

kyle orton is going to have to win this game for the bears. that won't happen.

[homedog]

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San Diego over NYG on Sunday night

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Really? You don't think that SD is going to find a way to give another game away in the 2nd half? I am a Chargers fan, so maybe I'm overreacting to the first 2 weeks... but this team scares me a LOT right now. They were fortunate that the game against Denver was even close. Conversely, the Giants have looked better than advertised. I think the Colts is the pick if you are looking for a lock straight up and there are only 7 players left (so you don't have to worry about saving a team for week 9 or 10).

FishNChips

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The best part of this exchange is that you're a Chargers fan who thinks the Chargers are gonna lose and I'm a Giants fan who thinks the Giants are gonna lose. There's alot going on in this game. Eli's prime time adventure to San Diego to visit the team he shunned. Chargers desperate not to fall to 0-3. The Vegas line seems like way too many points to be giving an undefeated team playing a winless squad. And that's exactly why I'm terrified of it. This Giants team is better than last year. But this is the exact kind of game that San Diego wins and then afterwards it seems obvious. Giants ain't going undefeated. San Diego ain't going winless. I think it happens this week.

That said, I agree with your assessment that Colts are a much more sensible pick for our OP's suicide pool.

[ThomasJoe]

im in one of these also. To me you always take a home team and this week it seems that Indy is the only choice. My guess is that 90 percent of people will take Indy this week in this kind of pool. I had Steelers week 1 and Pha week 2.

Good luck,

Also you can hedge the Colts by putting a small bet on the moneyline on the Browns.

Caveat I heard on TV that Clev always plays Indy tight but this could be more reason they will not take them lightly pluss you know the Indy offense is going to get untracked sooner or later but it is comforting to know their defense is much improved!

[SossMan]

there is an art to these, you know. simply taking the a team that you have left who has the highest point spread isn't ideal. You should be looking down the road to see who you will have to use next week and the week after and who you opponents will have to use (since there are a limited amount of them left)

That said, I like the Bengals this week.