way too much action?

I forgot to mention that he might re-raise you on the turn. That wouldn't be good.

[MrStretchie]

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I like the flop 3-bet. You've got 5 2-pair outs, plus a runner-runner flush draw and a (very small I think) chance that you're ahead. Do it for the free card.
Just call the turn. As for the river.. fold unimproved unless he's a maniac.

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go through your PT database and position stats if this is how you routinely play.

i wouldnt be surprised to see a lot of red there.
not to be harsh, but from the few opsts from you ive seen lately id tighten up, both in steals and flop play given te action

-Barron

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No worries - I appreciate honest helpful criticism. I don't really understand what's wrong here though. Looks by far most likely he's got a pair of aces. So you've got 5 outs to 2 pair plus 1.5 for the draw.. Maybe he's already got two pair, and obviously he could redraw, but I can't see discounting those to any less than 3.5. That still gives you 5+ outs, getting 11:1. Why not raise for a free card? After his UTG raise preflop, SB's got to be worried unless he has specifically AK or 2 pair. If he caps the flop you can check/fold the turn UI.

[highland]

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i wouldnt be surprised to see a lot of red there.
not to be harsh, but from the few opsts from you ive seen lately id tighten up, both in steals and flop play given te action

-Barron

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No worries - I appreciate honest helpful criticism. I don't really understand what's wrong here though. Looks by far most likely he's got a pair of aces. So you've got 5 outs to 2 pair plus 1.5 for the draw.. Maybe he's already got two pair, and obviously he could redraw, but I can't see discounting those to any less than 3.5. That still gives you 5+ outs, getting 11:1. Why not raise for a free card? After his UTG raise preflop, SB's got to be worried unless he has specifically AK or 2 pair. If he caps the flop you can check/fold the turn UI.

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Barron is referring to the UTG raise with JTs. At loose passive tables you can limp in with this, but I don't think raising is ever right UTG with this.

cheers,
highland

[ike]

Its 5 handed. Raising JTs UTG is all but mandatory. 3betting the flop however is bad. EDIT: Paying 1 sb for a free card on the turn when you have ~5 outs better work almost every time and I don't think this will.

[MrStretchie]

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Its 5 handed. Raising JTs UTG is all but mandatory. 3betting the flop however is bad.

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Again, because why? You agree that you have odds to call, right? I assume there's a strong reason not to believe you'll get a free card by doing this. What is it?

[ike]

You have odds to call the flop but not the turn unless its a spade, a J, or a T. Its not much of a free card play when by the time you get to the turn you only want a free card very badly about a fifth of the time. And I think you're getting capped or called and donked a decent amount of the time.

[MrStretchie]

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You have odds to call the flop but not the turn unless its a spade, a J, or a T. Its not much of a free card play when by the time you get to the turn you only want a free card very badly about a fifth of the time. And I think you're getting capped or called and donked a decent amount of the time.

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I'd say I want a free card more if it *isn't* a J or T..

Ignoring the backdoor draw for a minute: if I just call, I have a 10.6% chance to catch on the turn. If he has an ace, I'll make the (was it) 11 SB in the pot, plus another 4. So my EV is +0.7SB. (I realize it's somewhat optimistic to assume that I'll make 2 more BB and my 2 pair will always hold up.)

If I go for a free card and it works, I now have an 18.3% chance of making my 2 pair, and collect an average of 15SB (when I hit on the river I don't get a bet on the turn, but I get an extra bet on the flop). So now my EV is +1.11SB.

Even without the flush draw, the free card play is valuable if you know it will work. Obviously if it doesn't work, you've wasted that bet, but on the other hand, in situations where it does work and you pick up a flush draw, it's more valuable. There's also a slight possibility it'll scare a weak opponent into checking down a weaker ten that would've folded you out on the turn.

Based on these numbers, it looks like if it works more than about half the time, it's +EV. If the implied odds were adjusted lower, it'd be less.

Sorry, also forgot if the flop is capped that reduces it too. But do you see this flop getting capped with less than 2 pair, maaaybe AK? So I think you can fold at that point.

Anyway, it looks like it's close, but I don't see it being a bad play.

[DcifrThs]

it costs too much when you have to call the flop bets that you wouldn't have had to call.

this happens more often than you're allowing in your analysis.

and you didn't factor in the fact that he can donk bet the turn after you raise (which i do in that spot sometimes to prevent a good player from taking a free card.)

-Barron

[MrStretchie]

So if he caps the flop you're calling then? I'd say if he caps he is very likely to have at least AT (2 pair). I may call for meta-game, but I don't think it's +EV. - Edit - rethought below - have to call because of R-R flush draw. Whole next paragraph invalidated. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you can fold to a cap or a donk-bet on the turn (that one you have to unless you hit, obviously) then when he does these things it costs you 1 extra SB.

If my analysis above is on, you gain about 0.4SB when it works, from your 2 pair outs. You also save ~0.25SB from your flush draws (bet saved when you catch one and miss minus bet missed when you catch one and hit). So if you gain 0.65SB on average when the play works, and lose 1SB when it doesn't, it needs to work 60% of the time.

Argh, but on second thought, you can't fold that flop to a cap because of the runner-runner flush draw..

OK, so if half the time he doesn't give a free card he caps the flop you need it to work more like 70%. Which seems less likely.

Sooooooo I guess there isn't much point in posting all this to say I agree, but I will, because it took time to figure through all that dammit.

SO moral: 3-betting for free card is not generally worthwhile in situations where you don't have odds to call the turn UI, because it costs you more when you are re-raised than you make up. That's because you only make money from it when you hit, rather than every time you have to call the turn as in a standard free card play.

It would however still be good against a very passive opponent who would allow it to work 70% of the time +, or who could be counted on not to cap the flop, waiting until the turn to punish.