Playoff Fairness

[wh1t3bread]

Apples to Oranges.

[RacersEdge]

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you don't know much about probability, do you?

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Probably much more than you.. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


The required sample size is a function of the underlying variability of the process and the closeness of the quality of teams playing. So a baseball team playing .550 ball versus a baseball team playing .600 ball woul require a lot more games than 7 to determine who is better. In footaball, a lot of times it's a 14-2 (.850) team versus a 10-6 (.625) - a much bigger gap.

Plus, a baseball team has much more variability involved - just look at how the pitcher changes from game to game - much different than football.

This is what I mean by nature of the game.

[Phoenix1010]

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The required sample size is a function of the underlying variability of the process and the closeness of the quality of teams playing. So a baseball team playing .550 ball versus a baseball team playing .600 ball woul require a lot more games than 7 to determine who is better. In footaball, a lot of times it's a 14-2 (.850) team versus a 10-6 (.625) - a much bigger gap.

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I refuse to believe that you are serious about this as an explanation.

[RacersEdge]

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The required sample size is a function of the underlying variability of the process and the closeness of the quality of teams playing. So a baseball team playing .550 ball versus a baseball team playing .600 ball woul require a lot more games than 7 to determine who is better. In footaball, a lot of times it's a 14-2 (.850) team versus a 10-6 (.625) - a much bigger gap.

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I refuse to believe that you are serious about this as an explanation.

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If you want a more detailed explanation, pick up a stats book and look at hypothesis testing.

[Jack of Arcades]

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you don't know much about probability, do you?

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Um.

He and Teddy are right, for a few reasons.

1) Home field advantage is worht a lot more in the NFL than it is in baseball. Better teams almost always have HFA.
2) The NFL is more physically grueling, and the teams with byes in the first round have a huge leg up on those that play the first round.
3) The spread of talent among playoff teams is actually larger in the NFL. In the MLB, a dominant team wins 60% of their games. Last year, Pittsburgh won 94% of their games.
4) Baseball, even in a short series, has a lot more luck involved in it than an NFl or NBA game. Baseball is like playing poker... Football is like playing chess.

[sublime]

Baseball is like playing poker... Football is like playing chess.

i have a man crush on jack and manny ramirez. i dont care who knows it.

who is teddy btw?

[Jack of Arcades]

tbach24

[craig r]

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Baseball is like playing poker... Football is like playing chess.

i have a man crush on jack and manny ramirez. i dont care who knows it.

who is teddy btw?

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You didn't need to call it a "man crush". A "crush" would have sufficed. But, keep your hands off Manny..he is spoken for. Also, I don't know about Jack. But, based on his music selections and knowledge of baseball I think you guys would make a cute couple [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

craig

[Non_Comformist]

Jack has spoken. I defer to him.

[Phoenix1010]

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1) Home field advantage is worht a lot more in the NFL than it is in baseball. Better teams almost always have HFA.

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No. A big part of the idea of "playoff fairness" is to ensure that huge edges like this aren't given to either team. The regular season should not determine the playoffs. If there was a rule that the team with the worse regular season record had to play blindfolded, would that make it more fair because the better team usually has the better record? If you're going to give out big time advantages based on regular season records, there is no reason to have playoffs at all. The fact that the team with the better regular season record gets such a huge advantage is a big reason why single game elimination playoffs are so unfair.


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2) The NFL is more physically grueling, and the teams with byes in the first round have a huge leg up on those that play the first round.

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See above.

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3) The spread of talent among playoff teams is actually larger in the NFL. In the MLB, a dominant team wins 60% of their games. Last year, Pittsburgh won 94% of their games.

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Sample size? I don't understand why I even have to bring this up. If it was possible for the NFL to play a 162 game season, do you really think a team would win 94%? I'm not sure what you mean by "spread of talent" either. Do you mean difference in win percentages among playoff teams? Last year the NFL had three teams with 81%, 88%, and 94%. You can't say it's a huge spread when 1 game knocks you down 7 percentage points. Trying to argue statistics when your sample size is 16 makes no sense.

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4) Baseball, even in a short series, has a lot more luck involved in it than an NFl or NBA game. Baseball is like playing poker... Football is like playing chess.

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This is a good point. It's debatable whether this factor is enough to cancel out the much larger sample size that baseball playoff series offer than football games. It also points out how silly it is that Tbach gave the NFL and NBA equal scores.