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#11
07-07-2005, 03:23 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
I believe the post that you are refering to was meant for another well intentioned poster who sited numbers without supplying any supporting math. If nothing else I am rigorous in my math proofs. You have supported all you conclusions.
TY 
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#12
07-07-2005, 03:35 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
Based on your reply, I can't determine if you're satisfied or dissatisfied, lol. I rifled through Caro's Odds section (if you don't believe him, then you certainly wouldn't believe any of us). Unfortunately, his calculation included boats/quads...which wasn't your initial question. Here's a link to a page that supports my conclusion:
http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard...ewizard46.html ...search for "2112" and you'll find the paragraph I'm referring to. He approached it slightly differently and used C(12,2) * C(4,1) * C(4,1), which is the number of ways of choosing two cards of different ranks that are not 6's multipled by the different suit combinations. It's a slightly more elegant/simpler solution with the same result.
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#13
07-07-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
[ QUOTE ]
I can't verify any of your results without some supporting math. The question I am seeking is with a pocket pair what is the expectation that a set will result on the flop and nothing else quads, full, two pair. Thanks for your consideration of my query. Any help is greatly appreciated. TY [/ QUOTE ] 2*(48*44/2) / C(50,3) =~ 10.78%.
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#14
07-07-2005, 04:26 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
Thank God Bruce agrees! Would have been eating crow for a while if my number was wrong =).
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#15
07-08-2005, 02:33 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
lol, it's 7-1 that u'll improve to trips
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#16
07-08-2005, 03:07 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
[ QUOTE ]
2*(48*44/2) / C(50,3) =~ 10.78%. [/ QUOTE ] Just anothe post where I want to confirm the final answer for my own understanding. From above: 2 = two cards left in the deck to flop your set 48 = any other card in the deck that does not give you quads. 44 = the third card on the flop that can not pair the second card, correct? so... why do we divide by 2 now?
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#17
07-08-2005, 03:26 PM
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Re: Probalility of a set when holding a pair.
Because Ah 4s is the same as 4s Ah for the purposes of this calculation. Without it, you're double counting.
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