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#14
03-27-2005, 09:09 PM
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Re: Bubble Decision
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I used to think that this was an easy push, but after I went back and thought about it I am not so sure. I really feel like I have almost no fold equity here. By that I mean that the vast majority of players will not lay down a hand that is better than mine. The range of hands that I expect to get called by with some regularity are any A, any pair, and the occasional KQ. This is definitely too wide of a range for people that post on here to call with, but they are a very small subset of the PP player population. [/ QUOTE ] Can we get a buy-in here, please? It's critical information, and everybody always leaves it out. I think your assumed call range is wrong almost no matter what the buy-in. The only time I ever get called on the bubble by a comparable stack with A2 is if I've really been WAY out of line pushing every hand. A2 is dominated by so many pushing hands (all pairs and aces), it's really a pretty bad calling hand and most players appreciate this fact. I think a better calling range is something like: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KQs. Running the usual $EV analysis on that assumption gives:  And as usual, this agrees with the experienced players' conventional wisdom of pushing this hand. Even if you want to loosen up the aces some to: A5s+,A7o+, it still beats folding, although it's closer now:  In any un-exceptional game, I push this hand, although I don't particularly like my position. I'd much rather push this hand from the button, for example. As for where to draw the line, here's all the hands that rate to have 1/4% (of the prize pool) more equity than folding (by ICM valuation): 44+,A8o+,A5s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs. eastbay 
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#15
03-27-2005, 09:47 PM
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Re: Bubble Decision
Thanks a lot - this was very helpful. The SNG power tools is pretty cool, where can I get one of those? This was a $50+5. I think that your hand range is probably more accurate - but I really feel like at this stage in the tourney with the blinds as high as they are, people often freak out and will call off their chips with marginal holdings.
This seems to show two things. (1) That the call is marginally EV positive. I haven’t seen this type of analysis before so I don’t know how to interpret the results (i.e., why is 1/4% of the prize pool significant?). Given what seems like marginal value (or is 1% no longer marginal) – you think that this is an easy push or could go either way? What would 77/AJ show in terms of $EV Diff? Also, the +EV comes from my FE as I am always taking the worst of it when called. This shows that I should be increasing my push range here relative to what most people probably think. What would the response be if I posted this hand and it showed JT suited? I’m guessing an easy fold for most, although there is almost no difference in EV between the two against your range of hands.
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#16
03-27-2005, 10:45 PM
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Re: Bubble Decision
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks a lot - this was very helpful. The SNG power tools is pretty cool, where can I get one of those? [/ QUOTE ] I'll PM you. It's a commercial program I offer. [ QUOTE ] This was a $50+5. I think that your hand range is probably more accurate - but I really feel like at this stage in the tourney with the blinds as high as they are, people often freak out and will call off their chips with marginal holdings. This seems to show two things. (1) That the call is marginally EV positive. [/ QUOTE ] > 1% equity is not really marginal. But that depends on the table conditions. It is possible that this hand is a fold if the table is wild, but that's a pretty exceptional game condition. As I said, I push this hand in a $55 (where I have by far the most experience, BTW.) [ QUOTE ] I haven’t seen this type of analysis before so I don’t know how to interpret the results (i.e., why is 1/4% of the prize pool significant?). [/ QUOTE ] It's fairly arbitrary, just a little "survival value" buffer that seems reasonable with a lot of experience with this kind of analysis. [ QUOTE ] Given what seems like marginal value (or is 1% no longer marginal) [/ QUOTE ] No, I think giving up 1% edges is death, generally speaking. [ QUOTE ] What would 77/AJ show in terms of $EV Diff? [/ QUOTE ] They're both significantly stronger. AJo is +2.1% and 77 is +1.8% given the tighter calling assumption. My experience is that waiting for +1.5% edges is far too conservative. [ QUOTE ] Also, the +EV comes from my FE as I am always taking the worst of it when called. This shows that I should be increasing my push range here relative to what most people probably think. What would the response be if I posted this hand and it showed JT suited? I’m guessing an easy fold for most, although there is almost no difference in EV between the two against your range of hands. [/ QUOTE ] Aha. And now you've had a valuable insight about the relative value of holdings vs. image/calling standards for bubble play. eastbay
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#20
03-27-2005, 11:49 PM
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Re: Bubble Decision
Thanks for all of this – really good stuff. I just found poker stove a few months ago. Up until then, everything I did was based on feel and experience. This told me that KJs here was a definite push, but I’ve started to re-think a lot about the game lately.
Your analysis is great in quantifying everything for me. Basically, I should be increasing my range of push hands in this situation. My gut tells me to push, but I’d like to think more about (1) narrowing down the specific range of hands that I can be called with in various scenarios and then (2) exploiting quantifiable edges that I am comfortable with. Thanks again.
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