Analysis of Streaks (I):Levels 1-3 (long)

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

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Phase 1: median chip stack 1075
win rate with >1074 chips at the end of level 3: 26/33=79%
Phase 2: median chip stack 935
win rate with >934 chips at the end of level 3: 16/24=47%


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Slim, I assume you mean phase 2 win rate when above median = 67%, rather than 47%?

Statistcially, those two proportions can't be concluded to be significantly different, but out of curiosity, what was your ITM when >1074 in the second phase, and what was your ITM when >934 but <1074, and for the first phase, what was your ITM when >934 but <1074?

I guess I'm wondering if the probability of finishing in the money with stack 1074 at start of level 4 is actually significantly higher than with stack 934, despite there only being 140 difference. Is the correlation between stack size at this point in time and probability of cashing not linear, but it jumps at some figure, based on how long this implies before you start pushing etc, (though obviously there may not be statistical significance in the difference for your sample.)

Anyway, as you've said you'll look at L3-ITM, and if that doesn't show anyhting, this might then look more likley to be important.

FWIW, over 77 11s in Jan my median chip count when I mede it to level 4 was 845, and over 75 in Feb it was 770. ROI of 12 in both months.