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#11
03-06-2005, 09:50 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
It's 6:2 to go the distance (effective odds). This means, for the call down to be correct, the combination of the times he is conterfeited/on-a-draw and his cards not coming on the river have to be equal to that. 35% you say, seems close enough to make the call down...but it was a tough call for me. - Jim [/ QUOTE ] I thought about this one some more at dinner and I'm even more convinced that it's a calldown. I suppose you could consider folding a to a truly awful river card like specifically the Q, J or T of [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. But this flop is very draw-heavy, with the flush draw and the 98 combo that commonly-played hands like JT, QJ, QT will like. Combine that with the chance that he's turned three pair and I think it's an easy call. 
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#12
03-06-2005, 09:52 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he'd checkraise semi-bluff with a hand like JT here. [/ QUOTE ] Why the hell *wouldn't* he check-raise with JT on that flop? That's not a tremendously sophisticated check-raise and his hand is a favorite against AQ/AK without a flush redraw.
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#13
03-06-2005, 09:54 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming villian bets again on the river 100% of the time (cleary not the case) [/ QUOTE ] He's going to bet this river close to 100% of the time. Most players aren't capable of giving up with a draw or three pair here and will file that last, lonely bullet. He might check with the intention of calling if he has TT or something if the river card is an A or a K, but then you're collecting the last bet from him anyway.
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#14
03-06-2005, 10:02 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
He's going to bet this river close to 100% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Totally agree. Follow up: though I'm not questioning your advice here, are there certain marginal (far more marginal than this) situations where you (and other) posters could perhaps give advise more suited to higher (more aggressive) games, that isn't properly adjusted for 2/4 or 3/6? Even in this case, could the 35% number you came up with off the top of your head be a little high simply because of the differences in semi-bluffing frequency at different limits?
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#15
03-06-2005, 10:09 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
Follow up: though I'm not questioning your advice here, are there certain marginal (far more marginal than this) situations where you (and other) posters could perhaps give advise more suited to higher (more aggressive) games, that isn't properly adjusted for 2/4 or 3/6? [/ QUOTE ] Possibly. I'm certainly not suggesting that you should always be calling down with Ace-high. But this is a very good situation for doing so: 1) The board contains both a flush draw and a straight draw, and the straight draw will hit some common UTG limping hands. 2) The board on the flop is paired, which makes it less likely that your opponent has hit it, especially if he's usually going to slowplay with trips. 3) You counterfeit 22-77 on the turn, other common UTG limping hands that would often check-raise this flop. 4) The pot is heads up on the flop, which means less protection against a semibluff. 5) If his opponent knows the sort of player that Endian is, he'll know that he's capable of raising with a variety of overcard hands before the flop as well as making some folds after the flop, which will increase his propensity to semibluff. [ QUOTE ] Even in this case, could the 35% number you came up with off the top of your head be a little high simply because of the differences in semi-bluffing frequency at different limits? [/ QUOTE ] If anything I think it's about right for this limit and too low for a higher, more aggressive limit.
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#16
03-06-2005, 10:23 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
I've started calling down with AK in this situation more and more, and it's been paying off for me so far. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I think it's only right because the board is so coordinated and the cards are pretty high. there are only 2 8s and 2 9s left, and pocket pairs are drawing almost dead. if the board was 9229r, it's an easy fold IMO
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#17
03-06-2005, 11:35 PM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
3-betting this flop is right out as well I take it. You're an underdog to the semi-bluffing hands and you'll almost never fold a pair. So it looks like the only lines are call/fold.
I point this out because I am wont to hammer away with my AK from time to time. It's an indulgence I'm working on. Thanks for the discussion fellas, it's been very helpful. - Jim
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#18
03-07-2005, 12:15 AM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
3-betting this flop is right out as well I take it. You're an underdog to the semi-bluffing hands and you'll almost never fold a pair. So it looks like the only lines are call/fold. [/ QUOTE ] I really do very little 3-betting nowadays in heads up pots with just overcards.
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#19
03-07-2005, 12:28 AM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
call down on the kid. see what he has got and maybe give out a good image on yourself as a player
-sinful
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#20
03-07-2005, 01:05 AM
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Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I've started calling down with AK in this situation more and more, and it's been paying off for me so far. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I think it's only right because the board is so coordinated and the cards are pretty high. there are only 2 8s and 2 9s left, and pocket pairs are drawing almost dead. if the board was 9229r, it's an easy fold IMO [/ QUOTE ] Yup, that's what I meant when I said "in these situations." But I agree. Rob
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