Foxwoods 10K hand

[LLWesMan]

Results?

[SossMan]

I've got to go with zaxx on this one. Another set is probably pretty unlikely based on probability. There is so much else that Stan could have that he's raising this ragged flop with vs. a preflop raiser. A slowplayed big pair is my best guess. Even just AK or AQ making a stab at the pot. A couple of diamonds could be played this way (though again, statistically unlikely).

I think that smooth calling and raising his turn bet is the best line here. As another poster pointed out, a diamond may kill your action or even make you lose, but I'm willing to take that chance to disguise my hand a little more. A diamond will only come off about 1 time in 5 anyway on the turn and he still may bet it if he has a set or an overpair that includes a diamond.

-sossman

PS Zaxx...if you've had set over set 7 times in 10,000 hands, that's a lot. I've been playing for 5 years and can count the number of times I've been on the wrong end of set over set on one hand.

[knifeandfork]

if i am correct doesnt stan goldstein have reputation as a tighty? he is not getting away from set over set on this hand, but he could get away from a lot of over pairs. i dont hink reraising on the flop is bad just make it a little bigger 4200 ish. but then you get closer to pot committed issues where you dont want him to realize you will go to the felt just yet. still i think smooth call or raise a bit more depending on what/how many hands youve been playing and how far you have taken them. results would be interesting but ill throw a *guess* out there that stan folded an over pair smaller than QQ

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a hand a friend played, I though it was interesting.

Blinds 25-50 no ante, Friends Stack 13K, Opponents Stack 14K.

Folded to friend in Cut-off with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he raises to 300. The Big Blind (Stan Goldstein, older tourney pro) calls.

Flop is 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Stan checks, friend BETS 300, Stan RAISES to 1200 total, Friend RAISES to 3000 total. What do you think so far? Was 3000 the right number? Anyone just call? Push? Make a different sized raise? Results and more questions later...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm......this IS a fun hand. Alright, he called the 6x the BB raise from your friend so you've got a pot of 600 roughly?

Your opponent then check-raises you on the flop bringing the pot total to 2100.

I think I would have pushed here instead of just re-raising to 3000 total. Reasons for this:

1. If your opponent holds something like A/K, A/Q, A/J of diamonds you want to make him go away instead of outdrawing you. His bet may have been a semi-bluff to move your friend off his hand.

2. If Stan does hold an overpair that is pretty strong (Q/Q or higher) or he flopped a set, your friend will likely get action on his set and be a huge favorite to win the hand.

Can't wait to see the results.

[SossMan]

Why on earth would you want someone w/ AdKd to fold to your all in? You would be a 3:1 favorite and he would be making a big mistake to call.

The only reason that I could see an all in as a good play is if you think that your opponent will put you on a diamond draw w/ the big overbet. Otherwise, you let overpairs off way too easy. That would be such a waste.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Why on earth would you want someone w/ AdKd to fold to your all in? You would be a 3:1 favorite and he would be making a big mistake to call.

The only reason that I could see an all in as a good play is if you think that your opponent will put you on a diamond draw w/ the big overbet. Otherwise, you let overpairs off way too easy. That would be such a waste.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno man, I just hate being outdrawn, ya know? With two cards to come it's not that hard for your opponent to pick up their diamond and bust your set. This isn't a cash money game, this is a tournament, where one mistake can cost you everything.

If the diamond does come on the turn or the river do you really want to let go of your set then?

Like I said, I'd want to push the drawing hand out and win the pot right there instead of risk losing it by an outdraw.

And I expect he'd call with a strong overpair or another set, so you're likely going to win if that's the case.

Just out of curiousity, what would you recommend?

[SossMan]

wanting your oppoent to fold when you are 3:1 favorite and he's getting about 1.2:1 for his whole stack is crazy. This is early in the tournament where cashEV and chipEV have not started to diverge yet. You really cannot be afraid to put all your chips in with the nuts if you think you will be called by a 3:1 dog.

I doubt he goes broke on an overpair there, too. unless he has specifically AA, I can't imagine him putting any more money in on that flop if you were to raise.

As i said before, against this guy, I like the smooth call and raise all in on the turn if he bets. I would make a pot sized bet on the turn if he checks to me (diamond or not).

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
wanting your oppoent to fold when you are 3:1 favorite and he's getting about 1.2:1 for his whole stack is crazy. This is early in the tournament where cashEV and chipEV have not started to diverge yet. You really cannot be afraid to put all your chips in with the nuts if you think you will be called by a 3:1 dog.

I doubt he goes broke on an overpair there, too. unless he has specifically AA, I can't imagine him putting any more money in on that flop if you were to raise.

As i said before, against this guy, I like the smooth call and raise all in on the turn if he bets. I would make a pot sized bet on the turn if he checks to me (diamond or not).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're suggesting against what I would do and what the actual player did (i.e. moving all-in or re-raising the check-raise)?

You would just call the check-raise and then bet out on the turn, regardless of whether a diamond came or not, if I understand correctly.

So if the diamond does come on the turn and you bet out and get re-raised again (or, I think in this situation his opponent was first to act so what if he bets after the diamond comes out, do you re-raise against the possible flush?)

Again, I think you're setitng yourself up for disaster if the diamond comes on the turn. Let's look at the possibilities:


1. OPPONENT HAS OVERPAIR: They are first to act and the diamond falls on the turn and they bet out. You still might figure that they held A/? of diamonds and have outdrawn you, and you'll fold the best hand. Their overpair might also include a strong flush draw to the river if that diamond comes on the turn and they may wind up being pot-commited if you re-raise them.

2. OPPONENT HAS A LESSER SET: They'll act first and bet out with the diamond on the turn, and again you're left wondering what to do, and may fold the best hand.

3. OPPONENT HAS FLUSH: They may bet their flush, they may check it and check-raise you again. Now you become the underdog.

The key here is that you have position as far as acting last, but your opponent has position in the sense that they may be able to push your set out if the turn comes a diamond and they bet out.

I don't see why you'd want to give them that opportunity to bluff you out or actually outdraw your hand. If they have the flush draw they'll likely fold after your all-in raise to their check-raise.

And if they have an overpair they might call or they might fold, depending how strong that overpair is. And if they flopped a set you can bet your bottom dollar they're going to call you and have one out to beat you.

In a cash game I can see your play, but in a tournament I still prefer my push.

[SossMan]

where did I say I would fold if a diamond came on the turn?

in order for a diamond draw to beat me...

A) 8/45 cards (about 18%) are non-pair the board diamond cards. So we are talking about a sitution that happens less than 1 in 5 times.

B) he has to have exactly two diamonds. There are a multitude of hands that he could have that he's reraising a preflop raiser on a raggedy board.

C) the board can't pair on the river, too.

I'm willing to take the chance that all three of these things will not be true by the end of the hand in order to disguise my holdings and give him some rope to hang himself on the turn.

The fact that you think that my play is right in a cash game, but wrong in a tourney underscores the fact that you aren't up to date on tourney theory re: chipEV vs. cashEV early in the tournament.

hint: they're the same

the point is that while a free card might give my opponent the best hand, it's a risk i'm willing to take in order to extract the maximum value for this wonderful situation.

-SossMan

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
where did I say I would fold if a diamond came on the turn?

in order for a diamond draw to beat me...

A) 8/45 cards (about 18%) are non-pair the board diamond cards. So we are talking about a sitution that happens less than 1 in 5 times.

B) he has to have exactly two diamonds. There are a multitude of hands that he could have that he's reraising a preflop raiser on a raggedy board.

C) the board can't pair on the river, too.

I'm willing to take the chance that all three of these things will not be true by the end of the hand in order to disguise my holdings and give him some rope to hang himself on the turn.

The fact that you think that my play is right in a cash game, but wrong in a tourney underscores the fact that you aren't up to date on tourney theory re: chipEV vs. cashEV early in the tournament.

hint: they're the same

the point is that while a free card might give my opponent the best hand, it's a risk i'm willing to take in order to extract the maximum value for this wonderful situation.

-SossMan

[/ QUOTE ]

You make great points and I'm certain you understand game theory better than I do. Still......(puts on flame retardant suit) I believe extracting maximum value is most important in cash games while staying alive is most important in a tournament (unless there's a rebuy available, then the way you play this could change)

Also, if a diamond comes on the turn and your opponent bets out again, what do you do?

Or, if he checks and you bet and he check-raises ya on the diamond turn, what do you do?