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#11
04-13-2005, 05:56 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
its 4 people, still, enough to make a semibluff questionable.
if 0,2,3, or 4 call your bet you are ok, if 1 calls you are not. unfortunately i think you end up with precisely 1 caller too often to make betting the optimal choice here. its close though, you cant go too wrong either way. reads would be very useful here. 
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#13
04-13-2005, 05:59 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here? [/ QUOTE ] I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless. [/ QUOTE ] If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] We're talking semi-bluff though, not a stone cold. If your opponents are generally donks, I think you'll get at least 2 callers, hence I like the bet.
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#14
04-13-2005, 06:00 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here? [/ QUOTE ] I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless. [/ QUOTE ] If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] I'm refering to the river. IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.
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#15
04-13-2005, 06:02 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
IF they all the turn, they're calling the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option.
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#17
04-13-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] IF they all the turn, they're calling the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option. [/ QUOTE ] I think you almost have to bet the river if you get just one caller on the turn.
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#18
04-13-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
[ QUOTE ]
again: what percentage of the time do you expect to take it down on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Assume you'll get 2 callers (on average). You have ~14 outs and thereby 30% equity. By betting you'll on average lose: 2*0.3 - 0.70*1= -0.1BB The opponents then need to fold only 0.1/2.5= 4% of the time to make it profitable. Now this calculation is too simplyfied. You might get raised. Get more callers or less, but on average 2 is not a too bad estimation. You also might bluff the river succesfully. I just wanted to demonstrate with the calculation that you don't to win this pot an awfull lot at the turn to make a bet profitable.
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#19
04-13-2005, 06:26 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
yes, saddly that is too simplified. but i do get your point and agree that the magic number does not need to be particularly large.
like i said above, you are quite happy with 2 callers. the problem is that you will end up with 1 caller too frequently IMO.
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#20
04-13-2005, 06:31 PM
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Re: I decide to bet Q-high
I hate to even say this ... bet? - Yes and reasses on the river. River - depends on reads (that's the part I hate to say). What I mean is (let's assume a river blank for you) do you bluff the river again? - it's read dependant. How Donkish? I'm not betting because I keep running into K, little suited who wouldn't lead out and bet because they were worried about their kicker and call all the way down, or some suited connector that got a small piece or really anything. The hands I see people calling down with are just unbelievable and I don't think this makes a river bluff profitable - but then again that depends on your reads. FWIW.
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