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#11
02-11-2005, 02:43 PM
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Re: Fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I guess I would've pushed in the example given. Maybe he's bluffing. Maybe he's buying a free card for his draw. I don't think folding is terrible though. You put yourself in a bad spot and you have no good choices at this point. [/ QUOTE ] Phil, I really value your opinions. But I respectfully disagree with your admission to the above results. If you do it fine, but your admission is further 'evidence' that this is the right play. I think there is good logic in the following statement: Better a small stack than no stack. Furthermore, IMO, the checkraise is the only move I think the $10+1 Fish know. I would bet that a study of the checkraise on $10+1 tables would net 90%+ that the checkraiser has a strong hand. 
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#14
02-11-2005, 03:35 PM
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Re: Fold here?
I agree with your conclusion, but not with your logic. If I think there's a high probability that my opponent has a draw or two overs, I shouldn't fold (I should go all-in). I'd be a big favorite.
I think the reason to fold is that he is very likely to already have me beat with an overpair.
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#15
02-11-2005, 03:43 PM
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Re: Fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
If I think there's a high probability that my opponent has a draw or two overs, I shouldn't fold (I should go all-in). [/ QUOTE ] whether or not your statement is true depends on your definition of "high probability". [ QUOTE ] I think the reason to fold is that he is very likely to already have me beat with an overpair. [/ QUOTE ] this is certainly true. it is the combination of the already-beat and against-a-good-draw possibilities that make going against a semi-bluff so difficult, and make folding here the right play.
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#16
02-11-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: Fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your conclusion, but not with your logic. If I think there's a high probability that my opponent has a draw or two overs, I shouldn't fold (I should go all-in). I'd be a big favorite. [/ QUOTE ] I can't argue with that-- you're 100% correct, but that's not the issue. Hindsight is 20/20 my friend. The real question is this: what would lead you to believe that a flop reraise means there's a high probability that you're up against a draw? Many players are hesitant, prudently so, to bluff more than one opponent. This hand features four players.
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#17
02-11-2005, 04:13 PM
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Re: Fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
it is the combination of the already-beat and against-a-good-draw possibilities that make going against a semi-bluff so difficult, and make folding here the right play. [/ QUOTE ] Well put. According to TOP, the best defense against a semi-bluff in indeed a fold. YMMV? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#18
02-11-2005, 04:41 PM
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Re: Fold here?
Yeah, maybe you are right. At first I thought fold, then push.
The raiser has a lot of chips, so he really could be holding any 2 cards here, IMO. Sometimes I jump to the conclusion that someone with a lot of chips early is a maniac. Assuming he is non-maniac, Scuba is probably right, but I'd pretty damn pissed if I had to lay this down.
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#19
02-11-2005, 05:07 PM
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Re: Fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
After betting 125 and getting called, how do you play when the turn comes 8-K? [/ QUOTE ] If I have position on the caller and a non-spade falls, I'm betting 175 and hoping to check behind on the river. If a spade falls, I check the turn. If the caller has position on me and a non-spade falls, I think I'd check, but I'd be willing to call a small bet. If a spade falls, I'm probably going to check/call. I see your thinking with the overbet. However, bad players will call/fold about the same whether you bet 300 or 125. Good players will see right through your overbet, and may decide to play back at you with a big stack and a strong draw.
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#20
02-11-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: Fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it depends on how aggressive he's been PF. I know if I'm big stack, I'm raising with a lot of mid-high pocket pairs, especially 88 and up. As for him hitting a set? I doubt he's raising a set here. It seems to me he'd call and try to get the rest in on the turn. It's probably player dependent though. [/ QUOTE ] With at least a moderate stack, I'd limp with 22-99 at 25/50. I think 7's are no good here.
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