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#12
08-09-2004, 10:44 AM
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Re: Good or Lucky? PT stat question
[ QUOTE ]
Hi maxx, if you're trying to decide who to listen, go with the guy with 4K+ posts, not the one with ~70. [/ QUOTE ] How many posts do you need to evaluate a 2+2 poster with confidence? 
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#13
08-09-2004, 01:13 PM
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Re: Good or Lucky? PT stat question
I'm no stat guy. But I'd guess that if you are winning near your fair-share of hands then your BB/100 will be pretty close. With 10 people at the table your "fair share" would be winning 10 of 100 hands. But if you are playing tight you should be winning closer to 7 or 8 (you fold more eventual winners than the loose players, no duh). So if you are winning lets say 7.5 hands every 100 then your other stats are probably pretty close to accurate.
- Louie
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#14
08-09-2004, 01:51 PM
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Re: Good or Lucky? PT stat question
I have to agree that 10K is not nearly enough. I have seen a lot of fluctuation in 5k and 10k samples. However, in my case, once I reached about 30K in pt I have seen only small changes in my overall hourly win. I have been playing mostly the same limit for almost 50K now, and my hourly rate has only varied by about a $1 up or down. Even with a cold-streak of about 10 days, once the next week went by my numbers were the same as before the streak.
I guess that is a long winded way of saying that for a player that is not necessarily improving, 30K hands should be a very good indication. Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#16
08-09-2004, 08:12 PM
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Re: Good or Lucky? PT stat question
[ QUOTE ]
After how many hands would you be confident to draw conclusions about your rate because of your play, and not due to the cards running over you in the shortterm? [/ QUOTE ] It depends on what you are doing with the hands. If you are just looking at the pure results, you'll need on the order of 100,000 hands. If you were doing curve fitting, you could probably get an estimate which was about as good with only 10,000-20,000 hands. - Andrew www.pokerstove.com
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