AKAK in a multiway 4th hand

[DoctorK]

Alan:

He's getting $150 to $480 (or about 3-to-1) on his call here, with others still to act, and the uncertainty that he might face one or maybe even two more raises before it gets back to him.

I'm not sure how you calculated that he's a 2-to-1 dog vs. four draws (if you can explain that computation, I'd appreciate it, because I have a hard time figuring things like that), but even if he were, given that his equity in the pot is now just $15, and due to the size of the pot, everyone should stick around to the river, I think a call is marginal at best, and you sure don't lose much by folding.

[AlanBostick]

I got the "2- or 3-to-1" (not the flat 2:1 number you quote) by guesswork. Just like I said I did. I'm pretty confident it's in the right ballpark.

Given Marco's description of the game, I'd say it's pretty unlikely that the paired treys who opened the betting is going to let his hand go; if Marco stays in he is getting at worst 3:1 for his calls and ideally 4:1.

If the paired treys calls, then even if there is a raise and a reraise afterwards Marco is not merely getting the right price to call; he is getting the best of the fourth-street action. Yes, he's a dog to be the winner; but he will win more money when he wins than he loses when he doesn't -- especially when you consider that he can easily fold if an opponent catches good on a later street. Marco is in the position to lay his opponents reverse implied odds for his calls.

And if the treys drop out, then even with the prospect of additional raises and reraises, Marco's fourth-street call is still marginal-to-positive-EV.

[DoctorK]

Alan:

I'm still not sure I agree... and I wasn't being sarcastic about your 2 or 3-to-1 figure... I honestly don't know how to roughly compute those kind of figures.

Here's another question for you though -- why does your "title" on your profile say "newbie?" Mine says "stranger" and I don't see where I can change that?

Thanks,

Doc

[Marco Trevix]

Yep, you are right MRBAA.

And this is one of the most interesting things about poker. Anyone is prone to call an Ace raising (meaning a sure pair of ACes) with a pair of Kings but likes to fold a lesser pair (Jacks, Tens, etc)

Marco