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#11
02-08-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: KK checkup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd bet this turn and take the free showdown UI [/ QUOTE ] calling a check-raise? that's the hard part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'd call a check-raise here. You have 4-outs to the nuts and 2 that may give you the best hand. I'd put that around 5 total outs. That puts you about 9:1 to hit and you're getting 8:1 pot odds here. You can easily make up a bet or 2 on the river. Edit: This is assuming you will fold to a river bet UI (correct play IMO). 
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#12
02-09-2005, 12:00 AM
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Re: KK checkup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'd bet this turn and take the free showdown UI [/ QUOTE ] calling a check-raise? that's the hard part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'd call a check-raise here. You have 4-outs to the nuts and 2 that may give you the best hand. I'd put that around 5 total outs. That puts you about 9:1 to hit and you're getting 8:1 pot odds here. You can easily make up a bet or 2 on the river. Edit: This is assuming you will fold to a river bet UI (correct play IMO). [/ QUOTE ] It's not likely that he has 5 equivalent outs here if behind. The cards that he needs are likely to be somewhat dead. There's also a not-insignificant chance that an opponent has a made straight if he's faced with a check-raise, in which case he's drawing to 1.5 outs for a chop. The K could also fill in somebody's else's straight. I'd put it at something more like 3.5 outs, which wouldn't be enough to call a check-raise.
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#13
02-09-2005, 12:07 AM
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Re: KK checkup
I think a lot depends if there is one or two opponents left after the check-raise. If only 1 left, then I think it's safe to assume that all 4 Jack outs are good. There are almost no hands that contain a King that he will be check-raising this turn with. AK is the one possibility however I think he would've played the flop stronger given the board coordination.
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#14
02-09-2005, 12:20 AM
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Re: KK checkup
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's okay to check this turn. But you can overcall a river bet. Anyone who called the flop with a Q or a T thinks you were just auto-betting because you raised PF, and then gave up with, like, king-high when you checked the turn. Thinking their pair of queens is good, they bet the river. Since people like to call, overcalling here with a pair that beats middle pair is all right. You only need to be right 1 in 8 times. I think your hand is good 12.5% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, 1 in 8 sounds like enough. river bettor has JT. river caller has Q9. i would have been good.
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