20+2 To be or not to be (a wuss on the bubble).

[Matt Walker]

I think it is extremely bad to fold here. Even if someone ran an ICM and said it was wrong to call given his range, I still do it. Look at the stacks if you call and win:
Button (t1230)
SB (t1320)
BB (t710)
Hero (t4740)
Can't you see why this is extremely in your advantage? ICM doesn't take this into consideration.

Besides this I think there is a good chance you have him dominated. Hed have to be a complete rock not to push aq and ajs there.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is extremely bad to fold here. Even if someone ran an ICM and said it was wrong to call given his range, I still do it. Look at the stacks if you call and win:
Button (t1230)
SB (t1320)
BB (t710)
Hero (t4740)
Can't you see why this is extremely in your advantage? ICM doesn't take this into consideration.

Besides this I think there is a good chance you have him dominated. Hed have to be a complete rock not to push aq and ajs there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course its good to call and win. But I could reason that way when I have any pair. Calling and losing will put me in a tough position where I probably have to push close to any two (stack of 1200 and a 450 in blinds coming soon). With blinds these big and a stack of 2700 I still like my chances. It's not like I had planned to fold my way into the money here.

I think this is a 50/50 situation here (sometimes I have him dominated and sometimes he has me dominated, rest of the time I expect to see a pair). And I will no matter what cards I get have better ways to accumulate chips with three scared small stacks.

[Benfica]

I really like the "find a steadier bridge" concept....

[microbet]

Very player dependent. I'd say if you can't see him doing this with A9 or maybe even A8 it is a fold.

He is under 6 BBs so a lot of players will push here with less, but you say he is tight, so I think it is a fold.

I think a lot of players overvalue any PP and I think you see very low PP push here more than, say AT or even AJ - that's bad for this hand.

[microbet]

Coinflips are for situations like "he probably folds, but if he calls, it is likely a coinflip."

If you call here, you want it to be ahead of their range.

[valenzuela]

ehh...arent we ahead of his range [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[microbet]

It's complicated to do the ICM with the chances that the other players acting after might call, but if you assume they fold, it is about neutral $EV to call if his range is 55+, AT+.

That seems like a perfectly reasonable range to put a fairly tight player on.

[microbet]

Depends on his range. If it were you pushing, I'd call in a heartbeat, but this guy has raised only once in the SNG so far.

[Freudian]

If it was a 2+2er or if he has raised at least 5%+ preflop up to now, I would probably have called.

With me only having 60 hands against the guy it is hard to know if he just was getting bad cards or was unwilling to push with anything but a very good hand.

Btw, I think we have to assume the chances of anyone calling after me is very low if I call here.

[Moonsugar]

All the people who could call behind will probably lower the ICM EV calculation, remember there is a 50% equity cap.

If we put UTG on a range this tight (which I think is reasonable) we should fold and hope BB calls.